The NFL cares not for your family time as we’re gifted with 4 days of football this weekend, the Rams have already moved a step closer to the wildcard, the Steelers look like they’ll keep their “non-losing” record streak after Rudolph guided them to a win over the hapless Bengals while the Bills kept their hopes of the AFC East alive with a win in LA against the Chargers.
There’s a full slate tonight, two games tomorrow and a Christmas cracker on Monday Night Football with the 1 seeds in each conference facing each other, the furthest into a season this has happened since 1981 as the Ravens take on the 49ers in San Francisco.
You can find opinions on all games at TDTips.com but I’ll go through my favourite picks here as always and the key selections.
Best Spread; Cowboys +1.5 at Dolphins.
The game of Sunday night comes in Miami with two 10 win teams taking the field in a temperate Hard Rock Stadium. Despite the excellent season records there’s question marks over both teams in my mind. The Cowboys have dominated against terrible teams at home but have only beat one team with a winning record this season, the Eagles a couple of weeks ago, but they were destroyed by the Bills last week in frigid Bufallo.
The Dolphins haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since WEEK 3 LAST SEASON. That’s a remarkable stat and one I’m leaning on here a bit. They have a shallow passing game which goes almost entirely through Tyreek Hill, although Jaylen Waddle filled his boots well last week against the Jets. This game will surely go back to Tyreek 10 receptions which he’ll look to take to the house from 70 yards out as he has done for most of the season but this is a very athletic Cowboys defense. The Dolphins should look at how the bills did things last weekend and their dominant run game should have a big day with Achane and Mostert proving a crazy duo this year, Mostert now sits on 20 TDs for the year after 18 in his entire career before this year.
The Cowboys aren’t great on the road but with nice weather expected in Miami there’s no real excuse for Dak Prescott to not have a big game against an average Dolphins defense. They aren’t great on the ground as Tony Pollard is wearing down through the year but he can break away well if he gets through and is useful in the passing game. Most of the passing game goes through Ceedee Lamb who’s having the best year of his career in all positions in the offense. Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks add to that at TE and burner respectively. But for me it’s the Cowboys defense which needs to win the game for them and the pass rush should have a field day against a Dolphins offensive line with injuries all across it.
Prove to me you’re worthy of your spot in the conference Dallas and beat the Dolphins here.
Best Total; Colts v Falcons u44.5
A tough week on totals and I’m taking on a dead-nut over team in the Colts. They are without Michael Pittman and that will hurt their passing attack. He went out of the game last week and it fell apart against the Steelers (although they were unstoppable on the ground so I get it) – They welcome back Jonathan Taylor this week and Zack Moss drops out again.
The Falcons are utterly untrustworthy on the whole and the change of QB to Taylor Heinicke from Desmond Ridder doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in me on offense, although the terrible turnovers should drop a little. They have a well-organised defense which I think will slow the Colts.
Best TD scorer; Raheem Mostert – 10/11 (Skybet)
He’s scored 20 TDs this year, he’ll get the goal-line work when they get down there, and he’s nearly even money, I’ve got to take Mostert to add to his total. Not a whole lot more to say on him really.
If you want to go on to Monday night then Deebo is above evens at 21/20 at Bet365 – He’s cored 7 in 3 games and while I rate the Ravens defense he’ll probably still find the endzone.
Best Player Prop; Jahmyr Gibbs o22.5 rec yards
I want to get something on Gibbs this week, he has show that having an early season with few carries can be very beneficial for rookies as he’s stepped it up in recent weeks with fresher legs and playing inside in Minnesota I think he’ll be very involved in what I expect to be a high-scoring game here.
I’m not fussed about the Vikings defense doing well, they do blitz well and Jared Goff struggles with that, but that should increase dump offs to the RB as he will have to get the ball out quicker so it should mean a decent game for a kid who can get more yards than expected on every touch.
Merry Christmas to one and all, I hope you all have a great festive period. Adam (@TouchdownTips)
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