Few games have been more eagerly anticipated than Monday’s showdown between two AFC heavyweights, as the Buffalo Bills look to put down the swift rebirth of divisional rivals the New England Patriots.
When Tom Brady left the Pats in 2020 it was expected that their near 20-year reign over the AFC East would come to an end, with Buffalo anointed to take their place.
All had been going to plan as far as the Bills were concerned as they beat the Pats home and away last season on route to clinching the divisional title before falling one game short of reaching the Super Bowl.
As a result, they started this year as heavy favourites to win the division once more, only to find that New England are back from the brink after a rapid rebuild to challenge them for top spot.
With 12 weeks of the season gone, the Pats sit atop the standings at 8-4 after winning six straight games, with the Bills a half game back at 7-4 after a recent inconsistent run, mixing three wins and three defeats.
Despite the Patriots being the hottest team in the league, they head to Orchard Park as three-point underdogs and are 25/26 to cover the spread for a sixth straight road game.
The Bills are 25/28 to cover and 5/7 to record what would be only their second win over the Pats at home in the last decade.
The stage – which is likely to be a wintry one with snow forecast – is set for a dramatic night as the Bills go in search of a statement win.
Allen Out to Prove He’s Top Dog
If they are to knock off the Pats, then the Bills will need Josh Allen back to the kind of form he showed last season.
Allen was labelled an MVP contender entering the year after a brilliant 2020, but hasn’t lived up to the hype, blotting his record with some bad showings in the losses to Jacksonville and Indianapolis.
Allen looked better in the Thanksgiving win in New Orleans, throwing for four touchdowns that night.
The bad weather could limit how effective Allen’s cannon arm is and instead, we could see him scrambling more, making him an appealing option at 20/23 to rush for over 35.5 yards, while he’s 2/1 to score a touchdown.
Mac Making his Mark under Belichick
You are unlikely to see Patriots quarterback Mac Jones employ a similar approach having proven he’s an excellent pocket passer and game manager for New England since being drafted in April.
Jones has an impressive 70.3 pass completion percentage on the year but might not be asked to do too much with his arm in the snowy conditions.
A run-first approach would suit the weather and that’s where the Patriots have the edge, their collection of running backs averaging over 144 rushing yards per game in the last six weeks.
The Bills’ season average stands at just over 118 and their backfield doesn’t look as big a threat as the Patriots, who may hold the key to ringing up a seventh straight win at 5/4.
Defences on top
The Pats will hope to enjoy as much success running the ball against the Bills as the Indianapolis Colts did recently when clocking 264 yards, but that won’t be easy to replicate. Buffalo’s run defence has been solid in the main, ranking fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
The Bills’ defence is ranked number one overall in DVOA, just ahead of the Patriots, who bring one of the best secondaries in football to the table.
No team has recorded more interceptions than New England (19) this year, with JC Jackson the standout member of that unit.
No team has given up fewer yards per game over the last three weeks than the Patriots, who have the lowest points per game (15.8) of any team in the league.
The Bills have allowed 16.5 points per game, bringing the under 41.5 points at 25/27 firmly in to play for a game that likely to be decided by very fine margins.
*All odds correct at time of writing