Patrick Cantlay won the BMW Championship in an epic playoff against Bryson DeChambeau last Sunday – a victory which moved him atop the FedEx Cup standings.
First place in the FedEx list is never more important than in the days leading up to the PGA Tour Championship – because since 2019 a handicap system has been in place which rewards the FedEx leader with an immediate two-shot lead in the Tour Championship.
Cantlay will start the season finale on -10, with second-placed Tony Finau on eight under. DeChambeau, third in the FedEx list, will tee off at East Lake Golf Club, Georgia, on seven under, and the scores continue to worsen from there, with players ranked 26th to 30th in the FedEx standings starting the Tour Championship ten shots behind Cantlay.
Patrick Cantlay's playoff dart is this week's #ULTRAMoment!
https://t.co/mNkGrtqhyq pic.twitter.com/Ko5m8OYObM
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 31, 2021
The staggered start produces a difficult puzzle for punters to solve. Cantlay is a 15/4 chance to convert his advantage into victory. His East Lake record is terrible – and he flopped from the final first-round two-ball in the 2019 edition – so the odds seem cramped.
Rahm Confident of Overcoming East Lake Deficit
The 33/10 about Jon Rahm may prove a more popular option than Cantlay. Rahm starts the tournament with a four-shot deficit, residing fourth in the FedEx standings, but that gap could be easily closed over 72 holes of action on a tough layout like East Lake.
The long, tight par-70 in Georgia is a ball-strikers’ track where tee-to-green solidity is fully rewarded, and nobody has been hitting their ball with more authority over the last few months than Rahm.
The Spaniard would almost certainly be on a streak of seven top-tens in a row had he been able to finish the Memorial Tournament in Ohio. A positive Covid test meant he had to withdraw from that event when leading by six shots going into the final round, but he bounced back next time out by winning the US Open and there seems to be every chance he can put the icing on the cake of a magnificent campaign by claiming the FedEx Cup.
McIlroy could Make a Charge from Deep
The staggered start obviously makes Tour Championship life difficult for players teeing off a long way behind Cantlay, but if the pacesetting Californian wobbles under pressure, the superstars lurking deep on the leaderboard have plenty of time to catch up.
Rory McIlroy certainly seems worth a second glance at 25/1, especially with each-way terms of a quarter the odds for the first four places.
With only 30 runners going to post – and Patrick Reed struggling with illness – there is scope for McIlroy to make a serious impact at a venue he adores. The Northern Irishman will be eight shots behind at the outset, but he always seems to perform well at East Lake and has twice been victorious in the FedEx Cup. Fourth place in the BMW Championship has boosted his confidence.
*All odds correct at time of writing.