A disappointing week for myself last week, I blame the weather. I got the Dolphins offense right, I just wasn’t expecting their defense and special teams to have a field day against Jared Goff and the Rams. The stat-line for that game was remarkable, the Dolphins won 28-17 with 145 yards of offense, 8 first downs to the Rams 31! – A very random game. – Lev Bell was terrible on the ground, 7 yards from 6 attempts, annoyingly he topped his receiving yards early on, not his rush yards, and the Titans were very poor against my Bengals team.
There were winners abound in the comments section though so always worth a look down there before kick off. A little chat on mid-season and looking at the playoffs as well, Paddypower are actually offering win totals still which is tidy. I will try and get a post together, maybe for tomorrow actually with the Monday night football probably a dismal pathetic affair this week. What I will say is that the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers have the 5th easiest schedule based on teams current wins, while the 49ers have the toughest as a result of being in the NFC West. Not an exact science by any means, but should provide a guide for the rest of the season.
Spread
A few catch my eye this week. I don’t think the Ravens (-1) will lose two games in a row, they were the better team vs. the Steelers last week but mistakes cost them. The Seahawks (-3) is tempting going across the country to take on the Bills. The Steelers should cover -14 against the Cowboys but have a habit of playing down to their opposition especially on the road so that’s an avoid.
I’ll take the Texans -6.5 now that it’s dropped below a TD for them. They’ve only won one game this year but that was against this Jaguars team. They have looked better since Bill O’Brien was removed and should be able to put up points coming off their bye week here. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks will have appreciated the rest and both of their tight ends are healthy and ready to go (Akins and Fells) I think they’ll put up 24+ on their side of the ball.
The other side of it will probably be a whole lot of James Robinson in the run game as he faces the 27th ranked run defense of the Texans. They’ve decided that they’ll see what they’ve got in 6th round rookie Jake Luton at QB. Rookie QBs usually struggle (as Tua did last week, despite the result) and he hasn’t exactly got a lot of talent to throw to although Chark and Shenault haven’t been terrible.
It’s below a TD and that was the “go price” for me – Texans -6.5 best priced 1.91 at Skybet and Betfred
Player prop
It doesn’t look like there are any weather issues this week, so I think we’re on a level playing field again after being enticed by some “good prices” last week which flamed out completely. So in theory should be a decent range of props to choose through. Quite a few reception lines I like again, the likes of John Brown, James Robinson, Keenan Allen all good lines, Justin Herbert passing yards looks good at Skybet, he’s gone over his line on there every game he’s played but the possibility of Allen being out is a slight worry there.
So I’ll go with Big Irv. Irv Smith Jnr. in Minnesota. He’s their main tight end now leading the position in snaps for the last couple of games now. The gamescript got away from him last week as he only caught 1 pass in their run-heavy game against the Packers, but in dome against a poor Lions defense I’m hopeful he’ll return to the 4 per game he had in the couple of games before that.
Irv Smith jnr. o2.5 receptions – 2.00 (365/Skybet/Hills)
TD Scorer
Quite a few tight end prices I like again, Albert Okwuegbunam and Noah Fant for the Broncos against a Falcons team who have conceded 8 TDs to the TE in 8 games. Irv Smith (for the reasons above). I like Kyler Murray who’s scored in every game bar the one I tipped him for this season, they’re without Kenyan Drake at RB, so it’s probably him and Chase Edmonds leading the rush yards, although Eno Benjamin at 13/1 isn’t a terrible longshot. – EDIT: Apparently it’s likely to be DJ Foster as the backup, no mention of Eno whom I automatically assumed would be the man
But I’ve got to look at the highest total of the week as the Seahawks take on the Bills. Will it be a DK or a Tyler Lockett week? I’m hoping, given the Bills have Tre’davious White patrolling the perimeter that it will be a Tyler Lockett week. They’re poor at defending the middle of the field so the likes of Lockett in the slot and Will Dissly/Greg Olsen have got favourable matchups in the middle the park. Lockett has shown this year that he’s capable of putting up big games with two 3 TD games this season already. He’s Russ’ favourite target and should see a lot of the ball tonight.
Tyler Lockett anytime – 11/10 (PP/Betfair)
Utter shot in the dark, but also in the Miami v Arizona game – Salvon Ahmed. The Dolphins are down to their 4th/5th string RBs and while they will probably have Jordan Howard as the #1 they obviously don’t like him. So I believe it’s this fella as the next man up. He’s 5/1 on 365, yet 25/1 on PP so I’ve had a tiny bet on him there.
Summary
- Spread – Texans -6.5 – 1.91 (Skybet/Betfred)
- Player prop – Irv Smith o2.5 receptions – 2.00 (365/Skybet)
- TD Scorer – Tyler Lockett – 11/10 (Paddypower/Betfair)
Good Luck with whatever you’re on, enjoy the action!
Adam (@TouchdownTips, tdtips.com for previews of all games)
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