We probably reach the mid-point of the season this week, although I still debate that most teams having played their 8th game last week was the true mid-point – Anyway… we had a winning spread, and two winning TD props last weekend with Derrick Henry continuing his dominance of the Texans and D’onta Foreman scoring against the Falcons, in fact he racked up 3 on the ground against that team.
The Patriots easily covered against the Jets, while Kenny Pickett looked as poor as I expect but only threw one interception late on against the Eagles meaning a losing prop, the total was awful as well, choosing Unders in a Lions and Dolphins game which went over a few minutes into the second half… not great.
On to Week 9 and it’s a tough one to pick this week, some rough spreads on offer but I’ve got a few I like.
Best Spread Bet
Patriots -5 vs. Colts
This isn’t the hardest game in the world to handicap. It’s Bill Belichick against a very inexperienced quarterback. That’s about it.
The Colts have Sam Ehlinger starting his second game, it was expected that his mobility would have been key for them last week but he finished with just 15 rush yards from 6 attempts. In fairness his passing wasn’t terrible, 17 from 23 for 201 yards with a passer rating north of 100. Washington do generate pressure so it wasn’t the easiest debut for him, and the Patriots can get pressure too with Matt Judon leading the league in sacks so far this year. They’re without Jonathan Taylor and traded away Nyheim Hines so it’s probably a Deon Jackson game who carried the load when they were depleted last year.
The Patriots aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders either with Mac Jones seemingly taking a big step back in his development this year, but they will likely lean on Rhamondre Stevenson who’s proven himself the best back on this team and this week seems like he’ll be the only one with Harris likely ruled out through illness. I do like him to score tonight at around evens.
Patriots win and cover the spread. Simples.
Best Total Bet
Panthers @ Bengals OVER 42.5
This line has actually dropped a little since the look-ahead line and I’ll be honest, I have no idea why.
Sure the Bengals are missing Ja’Marr Chase and they looked terrible against the Browns last week but that was a matchup thing, they just don’t seem to be able to beat their divisional rivals, that game was also in prime time where they’ve been terrible as well. So a few things going against them there.
Joe Burrow is the best in the league bouncing back after defeat since he came into the league and they’ll be better prepared to being without Chase in this one, they still have talent on the roster with Higgins, Boyd and Mixon all getting increased targets with Chase out, and Hayden Hurst showing up well at TE.
The Panthers put up 34 last week in a game of the season contender as they lost in OT to the Falcons, D’Onta Foreman ran very well and is the only back there for them in this one with Chuba Hubbard again ruled out, but it’s the passing game I like to do well tonight with PJ Walker actually capable of throwing the ball downfield, something which Mayfield and Darnold haven’t been able to do.
DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall should have some success against a Bengals team missing their top 2 CBs with Awuzie and Mike Hilton out of this game. It leaves them very short in that position with rookies now having to step up and that’s why I think there will be points here.
Best TD Prop
Aaron Jones anytime – 4/5 (Skybet)
Not the largest odds on this one, but when one player on a team is getting the bulk of the carries and the targets then it’s fairly easy to pick them as a TD scorer especially against one of the worst defenses in the league in the Lions.
Aaron Jones had 20 carries for 143 yards last week and 4 receptions as they lost against the Bills, if the Packers have any sense (and in fairness that’s a tough thing to assume given how idiotic their plans have been this year) then they’ll use Jones and Dillon a lot in this game and give them most of the ball.
Jones also tends to get the goal-line work despite the fact that AJ Dillon can’t be stopped in short yardage. So I’m happy to take him.
Best Player Prop
Khalil Herbert longest rush o12.5 yards (o41.5 rush yards is fine too)
It looks like the Bears have finally realised that David Montgomery isn’t very good and are giving the ball to Khalil Herbert a lot more who has been the more explosive back in the team who actually lead the league in rushing so far this year.
I’m fine with either of these props as longest rush isn’t available everywhere and generally can’t be put in parlays if that’s your type of thing. Herbert has gone over this longest rush line in 6 of his 8 games this season, and the rushing total isn’t especially high either, so I’m fine taking the over on either of these.
That’ll do for the week, apologies for it being a little late, enjoy the week!
The post NFL Week 9; Best selections from around the league appeared first on MrFixitsTips.
