A win on the spread for me last week, but Boyd was part of a dismal Bengals offensive display which did his yards and Ebron made a couple of drops while Chase Claypool got himself all of the receiving scores in that one.
So on to week 6 (for most)
Spread
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Well, the Steelers are rolling. They’re nowhere near as good as they were last season on defense but the QB situation is infinitely better there and they’ve been dealing with what’s been put in front of them so far. Admittedly that’s not been much. They sit at 4-0 having beaten teams who have a combined record of 3-15-1 this year, so they’ve all been trash but they tend to play to their opposition. They have a tremendous record against the Browns, 24-5-1 straight up against them in the last 30 encounters and it’s been 17 years since the Browns won at Heinz Field. Oct 2003.
My honest thoughts are that the Steelers are over-rated and the media love them so anything they do is blown out of proportion but they have won all 4 and covered the spread in 3 of them, so they are exceeding expectations according to the bookies. The Browns are 2-3 ATS, but have won their last 4 games now. They have been playing well and the win against the Colts last week was quite comfortable, but they like to run the ball and are coming up against the best run defense in the league. They’re also beaten up. Baker Mayfield has possibly cracked ribs, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham are both playing injured, and obviously Nick Chubb is out in the run game for them. It’s not a good look as the Steelers get more QB pressures than any team in the league and one hit is going to cause Baker some considerable pain.
Mainly because of the injury news I’m begrudgingly (I hate the Steelers) taking Pitt to cover. If you can find a 3, even better.
Also like the Cowboys on Monday night, Chiefs, and Lions to cover.
Player prop
Antonio Gibson o3.5 receptions – 2.00 (WillHill)
The Washington football team aren’t very good. However they will again be starting Kyle Allen this week after he was knocked out of the game by a Jalen Ramsey cheap shot last week. Before that he’d done an adequate job running the offense especially dumping the ball off to rookie WR turned RB Antonio Gibson in the backfield. He had 3 receptions in the first 5 mins last week and finished on 5. I’m sure he’d have hit that before half time had Allen played the whole game. So I’m happy to hit o3.5 receptions for him again this week against a poor Giants defense.
I like a lot of reception lines this week actually, Gibson, James Robinson o3.5, Tim Patrick of the Broncos o3.5, Jeff Smith for the Jets o2.5 all look good.
TD Scorer
Mark Andrews anytime – 2.20 (888)
I turned away from Mark Andrews last week as I didn’t want to repeat myself from the week before, but he scored once more and he gets another good matchup this week against the Eagles. They allowed 3 TDs for Claypool last week in the middle of the field and that’s where they’re weakest. The Ravens don’t really use their wide receivers, it’s mainly Mandrews in the middle of the field, so I’m happy to take over evens for him once more this week.
A few others I like the look of, Mike Boone for the Vikings, he scored a few with Dalvin Cook out of the lineup last year and gets the goal-line work there, 3/1 on Skybet. Riskier one is D’Andre Swift at 3/1 against the Jags, but that relies on the Lions coaching staff not being stupid which is risky. John Ross is 22/1 on 888 for the Bengals (I was allowed 46p MAX on it) he has been a healthy scratch recently but will be active tonight, it’s a big price.
Summary
- Steelers -3.5 @ 1.95
- Antonio Gibson o3.5 receptions – 2.00 (WillHill)
- Mark Andrews anytime TD – 2.20 (888)
As always good luck, full previews from me over on tdtips.com and get involved in my Draftkings games if you’re not already!
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