Week 5 is here and things are starting to settle down, bad teams are proving how bad they are, good teams are showing they’re on their way to the playoffs and tonight we’ve got a matchup of two “good” teams.
LA Rams +1.5 @ Seattle Seahawks; total – 49.5
Both teams come into tonight at 3-1, the Rams having beaten the Panthers, Saints and Browns before losing a barn-buster last week against the Buccs. The Seahawks scraped past the awful Bengals, the Steelers without their starting QB and the 0-4 Cardinals last week, losing to the Drew Brees-less Saints the week before. What I’m aiming at here is that the ‘Hawks have had the easiest schedule so far.
Rams
In fairness the Rams haven’t got things clicking so far despite their record and road Jared Goff is generally not great. The book seems to be available on how to stop the Rams now and it’s making life difficult for them. Jared Goff somehow didn’t have a great game last week despite the 3rd most pass attempts in history and throwing for over 500 yards while chasing something from their game with Tampa. His favourite target is Cooper Kupp who has returned better than ever from his ACL injury, he’s topped 100 yards in 3 games straight and has 3 TDs in those three games as well. Robert Woods bounced back from a rare bad game, he’s generally good for mid-60 yards per game and Brandin Cooks has generally been over 70 yards per game so far.
They have worries with Todd Gurley who just doesn’t look like the player we had all got used to; He was used more in the passing game last year which he used to be dynamic in, and he got 2 goal-line carries for TDs as well so his day wasn’t a complete write off. Something we haven’t seen a lot from the Rams over the last couple of years is them using their Tight ends Higbee and Everett, but those two lead the team in redzone targets with 4 and 5 respectively.
Seahawks
The Seahawks have ground out some results this year, and that’s the way they like to do it, on the ground. Chris Carson is their lead back and he’s run well, especially last week where he finished with 157 total yards, but he’s not scored since week 1 and fumbled three games in a row. Head coach Pete Carroll re-iterated that he’s the man still but the other guy Rashaad Penny should be back fit tonight and if there’s another fumble, well… we’ll see what happens then.
Russell Wilson is a top 3 QB in the league and when called upon he makes the plays, mainly to Tyler Lockett who is somehow still as efficient as he was last season converting 26 of his 32 targets for 2 TDs this year despite having a 2 and a 4 target game. The guy on the other side to him is rookie DK Metcalf who blew up the combine by running really fast in a straight line, and it turns out he’s pretty good at that on the field as well averaging 22 yards per catch this season, he also leads the receivers in redzone targets with 7, although he’s not caught any of them. My boy David Moore is back and he gets redzone targets too.
Their tight end Will Dissly has been a star so far this season as well with 4 TDs in 4 games and hauling in 19 of his 22 targets this season.
What’s going to happen?
This should be an entertaining match, the games between these two last year finished 33-31 and 36-31 to the Rams and neither side has been too impressive defensively so far this term, so I’ve got to lean to the overs. I’m useless at picking winners on Thursdays though, this year has seen all 3 underdogs win them so far. If you think it’ll be as high scoring as last week then o79.5 points is 33/1 on Paddypower…
I like DK Metcalf to top his yardage mark of 45.5 on Betfred (46.5 elsewhere) also think he’s a decent bet to find the endzone at a standout 9/4 on Spreadex.
Recommended bets
- DK Metcalf o45.5 – 1.83 (Betfred)
- Total points o49.5 – 10/11 (everywhere)
Good luck if you’re on anything tonight, I’m hopeful that it’ll be a good one!
Adam (@TouchdownTips)
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