A busy week on the ATP Tour sees the Rio Open take centre stage and a strong field in South America is spearheaded by Italian world number six Matteo Berrettini.
Past winners of Brazil’s clay-court competition include Rafael Nadal, who won the inaugural edition in 2014, and this year should see another high-profile victor with plenty of stars out in force.
Australian Open semi-finalist Berrettini will be the competition’s big hitter but the ATP 500 event also features world number eight Casper Ruud, 2018 champion Diego Schwartzman and former Rio Open runner-up Pablo Carreno Busta.
Last season’s event was cancelled, meaning fifth seed Cristian Garin will finally get the chance to defend his crown, while rising Spanish star Carlos Alcaraz and impressive Italian Lorenzo Sonego also feature in a high-quality field.
Berrettini Has Plenty of Obstacles to Overcome
Berrettini is sure to have his backers in Brazil and although the Italian is a three-time winner on clay on the ATP Tour, there are plenty of reasons to be taking him on at his price of 9/2.
Not only have the 25-year-old’s best recent efforts come on a faster surface – he made the final at Wimbledon in 2021 as well as the last four at this year’s Australian Open – but his draw looks a tricky one.
Despite being top seed, Berrettini could face home hope Thiago Monteiro in his opener before a mouthwatering quarter-final clash with Alcaraz.
Berrettini squeezed past Alcaraz in a thrilling fifth set in the third round of the first Grand Slam of the year in Melbourne and the Spaniard is arguably just as good on this slower terrain.
If the world number six comes through those tests, then 2017 runner-up Carreno Busta, who has claimed three of his six Tour titles on the red dirt, would be waiting in the last four.
That makes his task look difficult from the get-go, and can see him opposed at the forecast prices.
Carreno Busta Can Capitalise if Top Seed Falters
Those looking for each-way value from the top half of the draw should stick with Carreno Busta at 6/1, who has shown his liking for the clay courts of Brazil and should be freshened up having been off since the Australian Open.
The Spaniard was beaten by Berrettini in straight sets in the fourth round in Melbourne but is considered a clay-court specialist and there would be little between him and Berrettini on this surface.
The 30-year-old also receives a first-round bye and with reigning champion Garin struggling to hit top form, a semi-final spot should be his for the taking.
Quick Turnaround Far From Ideal for Buenos Aires Finalists
Ruud and Schwartzmann, 5/2 and 5/1 respectively, clashed in the final of Buenos Aires on Sunday evening, and although they are the two classiest clay performers in the bottom half of the draw, there is a chance their efforts could leave them vulnerable.
It would come as no great surprise were either to manage the travel time and workload to contest for another piece of silverware, but at the prices they may be worth taking on.
Sonego and Pedro Martinez may have their supporters, but perhaps eighth seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas is the player most likely to capitalise at odds of 20/1.
The seasoned Spaniard is not getting any younger at 34 years of age but he showed himself to be in good form when claiming silverware at the Cordoba Open earlier this month.
That was a fourth clay-court title in the career of Ramos-Vinolas, who opens up against a qualifier, before a second-round duel with Pablo Cuevas or Pablo Andujar.
That gives him a good shot at least a quarter-final spot and, therefore, means there would be some juice in his outright price.
*All odds correct at time of writing.
