Millwall v Reading
Under Gary Rowett, Millwall have an impressive home record with W21-D11-L8 and the last 20 its W13-D4-L3 with defeats coming against Nottingham Forest, Luton, and Swansea. Over these 20 games they have conceded an average of just 0.65 goals with clean sheets in 45%.
So far this season they have beaten Stoke and Coventry at home as their home form continues. The Lions have a decent squad this season with the likes of Benik Afobe, George Honeyman, Jamie Shackleton, and Charlie Cresswell, the latter two both on loan from Leeds.
Reading have started the season with W3-D0-L2 with all three wins coming on home soil and the two defeats coming without scoring a goal and conceding 5 across the two games. I have them racked as the 16th best away side this season. Only seven sides have seen their opponents average more touches of the ball in their penalty area than Reading and only six sides concede more shots on target in the box.
At the start of the season Millwall were fancied as one of the sides than could improve on last season and make serious moves into the play offs whereas Reading were again expected to struggle. The Royals beating the then leaders should have been no surprise given Rovers very more underlying metrics especially on the road and Boro have struggled to get going this season. Since Ince took over at temporary manager and then appointed permanently – his record is W1-D2-L6, failing to score in five of the 9 games.
Reading have collected 16 bookings in 6 games this season across the league and EFL Cup – an average of 2.67 per game. They pick up an average of 2.17 second half card, collecting at least one in five of their six matches this term. Only four sides have collected more cards than the Royals so we should see several cards. The referee here is Chris Kavanagh, who takes charge of his first game of the season on Saturday. Last term he averaged 4.2 cards per game and 4.4 in his Championship games, with both sides collecting a card in all five of his games.
Given the style of both sides I am expecting a physical battle. Only four of the last 20 sides to visit the Den have come away with collecting a card.
I am going to take Millwall double chance, so to either win or draw, Millwall to score over 0 goals and Reading to have over 0 2nd half cards. This can be backed at 8/11 with Bet365 bet builder.
Huddersfield Town v West Brom
WBA have been a little unfortunate not to have more points on the board. They have gone W1-D3-L1 so far this term, but that doesn’t really tell the story.
They have top of the table for xPTS and in their 3 home games they have won the xG battle in all of them, racking up 16,15 and 16 shots and 6,5, and 7 SOT. Away from home they have conceded 3 goals from 4 SOT and a xGA of 0.88.
They are in the top 3 ratios for xG, shots, shots on target, shots in the box and shots on target in the box. The Baggies have brought well over the summer and the additions of Swift and Wallace have made their attacking group very strong with Grant and Diangana.
Huddersfield have struggled all season. They have been one, if not the weakest team so far in the division. I have them bottom on xPTS and in the bottom two for all of the ratios mentioned previously with WBA.
So far this term they have gone W1-D0-L3 with their only victory coming at home to Stoke. The Potters that day missed a penalty at 1-1 and still won the xG 1.11 vs 1.6, losing the shot count 17 v 8. Losing both Lewis O’Brien and Harry Toffolo to Nottm Forest hasn’t helped which Pipa when to Olympiacos. However, their biggest loss was losing manager Carlos Corberan.
For the visit of WBA, Tom Lees is suspended, which will be major blow for the Terriers and this will result in a reshuffle for the hosts.
The odds have dropped since the start of the week, where I advised my private telegram group to take WBA with an asian handicap of -0.25AH, but we have back the visitors on a straight win at even money with Unibet.
Leyton Orient v Hartlepool
Leyton Orient host Hartlepool on Saturday and whilst I am happy to back the home win but the odds are just too short at 13/20 so I am going to take Orient to win but under 4.5 goals at 7/8 with Unibet.
Orient have started the season well with a record of W4-D1-L0 conceding just two goals and they sit top of the table and 5th for xPTS. They were convincing winners in their games against Grimsby, Crawly, Colchester and Swindon, but they did struggle against Mansfield, winning the game 1-0 but losing the xG battle and shot count. However, Mansfield are expected to do well and sit 8th in the table.
Orient sit in the top 8 for the majority of the usual metrics although they have an average xG of just 1.09 and xGA of 0.79 so I am not expecting many goals.
Hartlepool have started the season with a record of W0-D2-L2 having scored just scored just two goals from a xG of 0.6 per match and conceded nine from 1.42 xGA. I have them in 23rd for xPTS. Statically they are the worst side in the division with a xG ratio of just 29.7% and sit in the bottom two for the other metrics that I compile.
The visitors now have a record over the last 20 League Two games of W3-D6-L11 scoring 15 and conceding 34 – an average of 1.70 per game. It’s an awful run of games and one that they show no signs of getting out of.
Orient should be too strong for a side that looks likely to drop back into the National League come May, but given the few goals scored by either side it should finish with five or fewer goals. Despite Hartlepool’s shocking run of form they have only seen two of the past 20 league games go over 4.5 goals.
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