Max Verstappen upset the odds in Texas last time and the Dutchman could move a significant step closer to claiming his first world championship if he can follow up in this weekend’s Mexican Grand Prix.
Red Bull driver Verstappen is involved in a terrific fight with seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton. But his win in Austin moved Verstappen 12 points clear in the standings – the biggest lead he has enjoyed since after July’s Austrian Grand Prix, eight races ago. The flying Dutchman is rated a 2/5 chance to take the title, with Hamilton 7/4 to claw back the difference in the remaining five races.
Mexico a Happy Hunting Ground For Red Bull
Verstappen’s victory in Texas last time was his first at the circuit, where rivals Mercedes have traditionally had the upper hand. But it’s a different story in Mexico City, where Verstappen won in 2017 and 2018.
When F1 last visited the track in 2019, Verstappen set the fastest time in qualifying but was demoted after being deemed to have exceeded track limits, then suffered damage as the field bunched up at the first corner of the race.
Bottas the Best Value to Return to the Podium
It’s hard to escape the conclusion that Verstappen is much the most likely winner in Mexico, but his odds of 4/7 aren’t particularly exciting.
His Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez has hit form at the right time, arriving for his home Grand Prix following two podium finishes in Turkey and the US.
Checo will no doubt be popular each-way at 14/1 or for another top-three finish at 5/8, but Hamilton’s Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas looks a considerably better value bet.
The Finn, who will leave the team at the end of this season, has had an inconsistent campaign, but took his first win of the year in Turkey two races ago, starting from pole position and setting the fastest lap of the race, to boot.
Bottas has had to overcome grid penalties for taking fresh engine parts at three of the last four races, and has scored nine podium finishes to Perez’s four this season.
The Mercedes man is 43/20 to appear on the Mexico rostrum for the fourth time in his career. That’s a bigger price even than Charles Leclerc, whose Ferrari should be well suited to the track but has nonetheless managed just one podium finish this year.
Alonso Could Bounce Back to Form
Looking at the other markets, a price that stands out is Fernando Alonso at 16/5 to finish in the top six.
The veteran Spaniard started from the back in Texas and went off at the first corner in Turkey after starting fifth.
But before those setbacks he had ended three of the previous five races in the top six, and looks overpriced to claim another decent points haul for Alpine.
*All odds correct at time of writing.