After going 10-2 picking the fights at last weekend’s UFC Vegas 48 (aka UFC Fight Night Walker vs Hill), I think it’s safe to say I’m officially on a heater. That brings my record for 2022 to 41-18 – that constitutes ‘hot’, wouldn’t you say?! Anyhow, enough puffing my chest out – let’s get down to business and pick some winners for UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs Green (aka UFC Vegas 49).
This weekend we get another lackluster UFC Fight Night card emanating from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. This is another injury depleted fight card, as a couple of key matchups were pulled from the lineup, and more than a handful of fights have seen short notice fighters step in to fill voids.
The main event was supposed to be a lightweight #1 contender fight between Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush. However, Dariush recently injured his ankle, forcing his removal from the card. In steps ‘King’ Bobby Green, who just beat Nasrat Haqparast a couple of weeks ago. And, since Green claims his weight has ballooned up to 195 pounds since that victory, this fight has been bumped up five pounds to a 160-pound catchweight fight. Still quite the weight cut facing Green.
Green Has No Way to Win
Bobby Green has no shot in this fight I’m sorry to say. Even with a full fight camp and normal weight cut, he has no chance at beating Islam Makhachev. Makhachev is a wrestling and grappling monster, and Green struggles to keep wrestlers from taking him down. While it’s a nice story that Green finally is headlining a card in a major promotion, with 14-years and 42 pro fights under his belt, this is a nightmare matchup for him. Makhachev at 1/11 is the pick, but I doubt there’s much value in playing that number unless you’re a high-volume bettor.
The co-main event has a fighter stepping in on short notice as well, although Wellington Turman has had almost a month to prepare for his fight, unlike Green. ‘The Prodigy’ will be facing Misha Cirkunov in a middleweight fight, Cirkunov’s second at that weight class in the UFC after exclusively fighting at light heavyweight before. After a very promising start to his career (he was 13-2 after his fourth UFC fight), Cirkunov has struggled, going 4-5, including only one win in his last four fights and two straight losses heading into Saturday. However, I think his size advantage, and his strong grappling, gets him out of his funk this Saturday. Cirkunov at 4/5 is the pick.
Underdog Picks this Weekend
Ok, let’s get down to the money-making picks – the underdogs. There are only a couple I like on this card, but that tracks because the chalk has been coming through stronger than normal in 2022 thus far – favourites are winning 72% of the time this year.
First, I’m taking Terrance ‘T.Wrecks’ McKinney at 20/21 in his lightweight fight against Fares Ziam. McKinney opened eyes last summer in his short notice UFC debut, knocking out veteran Matt Frevola. That marks four straight wins for McKinney, all via finish. Let’s try to make it five straight this weekend, as I think McKinney gets past Ziam.
For my second underdog, I’m taking Victor Altamirano at 11/10 for his flyweight fight against Carlos Hernandez. Both men are making their UFC debuts after securing contracts by split decision wins on Dana White’s Contender Series. I’m siding with Altamirano because I like the quality of opponents on his resume, which includes a LFA championship win, and he has three inches of reach over Hernandez, which will come in handy as he’s the more active striker of the two men.