The UFC bids adieu to 2021 with one final event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas this Saturday afternoon/evening. And it’s another doozy of a fight card, as the promotion caps off the year with a string of very good fight cards, both on paper and in execution. Who foresaw Julianna Pena pulling off one of the biggest upsets of all-time last weekend, usurping women’s GOAT Amanda Nunes?! I’d like to say I did, but if you read last week’s column you know that is not the case.
Saturday brings us UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Daukaus aka UFC Vegas 45. This week’s card is headlined by a big heavyweight matchup between two top contenders – one a long-time veteran of the upper reaches of the UFC heavyweight division; the other a young upstart getting his first big test. The veteran would be ‘The Black Beast’ Derrick Lewis, 16-6 in the UFC and a one-time UFC Heavyweight Championship title challenger (he got submitted by then-champion Daniel Cormier at UFC 230 in 2018). The upstart would be Philadelphia police officer Chris Daukaus, a perfect 4-0 in the UFC, with all four fights ending in a (T)KO.
And right out of the gate this week I’m going with an underdog in Lewis at 23/20. While Daukaus is probably the better striker and is a far more active striker, with very good power, things such as ‘facts’ don’t seem to matter much in Derrick Lewis fights. Derrick Lewis fights are always a breed unto themselves. While Lewis is coming off a TKO loss, it was in an interim title fight with Ciryl Gane. Lewis tends to only lose to the very tippy top of the division – everyone else finds themselves getting knocked out by the Texas native. I’m not sure if Daukaus is ready for this level yet, as this is a big step up for him. Lewis is the pick.
The Wonderboy Versus the Upstart
The co-main event is a pretty similar situation as the main event, as a long-time elite welterweight in Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson looks to fight back an upstart in Belal ‘Remember the Name’ Muhammad. Thompson, like Lewis, tends to only lose to the very best of his division, which Muhammad isn’t (at least not quite yet). I’m liking Wonderboy’s unique fighting style and reach advantage to carry the day. Stephen Thompson at 5/12 is the route to go.
Ok, you greedy gamblers want some underdog action, I’m sure. Besides Lewis in the main event, there are quite a few live dogs I’m backing on this week’s card. I’m going against my stats, which tell me that late notice replacement fighters only win 39% of the time, and backing Macy Chiasson at 29/20 against Raquel Pennington. This fight will be up at women’s featherweight, instead of bantamweight, which I feel will benefit the much larger Chiasson (four inches taller, five inches of reach). She should also be the better striker of the two women in this matchup and is younger. Assuming she can avoid Pennington clinching her up against the cage and making the fight a 15-minute slog, I like her chances to win us some plus money.
I actually thought there were more underdogs I was excited about this week, but it turns out there are only three in total – Lewis, Chiasson, and finally Josh Parisian. Parisian is in a prelim heavyweight fight against Don’Tale Mayes. While Mayes can really crack, I think Parisian is the better striker of the two men and lands strikes far more frequently than Mayes does. He’s also the better grappler of the two. Parisian at 8/5 is worth a play in my eyes.