If you thought last week’s UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez was a weak fight card, have I got news for you – this week’s is even worse! UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs Dumont has had its main event switched twice so far, and the undercard is severely lacking star power.
However, last week lackluster offering didn’t stop us from making some money, as my picks for the whole card went 7-2. Let’s do at least as well this weekend, shall we, at UFC Vegas 40. We head, once again, to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Short-Notice Stand-In to Come Good
The main event sees Aspen Ladd step in on short notice to face Norma Dumont. The original main event was Ketlen Vieira against Miesha Tate until Tate caught COVID-19. Then Holly Holm vs Dumont was promoted to the main event before Holm had to pull out due to an injury. So, we get Aspen Ladd only a couple of weeks since she failed dramatically cutting weight and had her fight cancelled.
The positive here is that this fight is at featherweight, a weight class above the bantamweight one that Ladd struggles so much to make weight in. Another positive aspect, at least for Ladd and her fans, is she’s a far superior and more experienced fighter than Dumont, despite being five years her junior. Assuming there are no lingering health effects from her scary showing on the scales two week’s ago, Ladd is the pick at 5/7.
’d in ahead of her first UFC main event.
[ @NormaDumont5 | #UFCVegas40 | Oct 16 | Live on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/6BYMpwxGBs
— UFC (@ufc) October 14, 2021
The Pitbull Still Has Plenty of Bite
In the co-main event, I’m taking a man who made his pro debut in 1999 and has 53 professional MMA fights on his resume, Andrei Arlovski. While he’s an old dog, ‘The Pitbull’ still has plenty of bite left in him, as he’s really turned his career around the past few years. He’s done this by being far more cautious and defensive in the cage, seeing him not being knocked out in over two years. I think he can ride this safe approach to a boring decision win over Carlos Felipe on Saturday. In this pick ‘em fight, I’m taking Arlovski at 20/21 (a slight underdog to Felipe’s 5/6).
If you’re looking for some other underdogs on this fight card to bet on outside of Arlovski, well you’re looking in the wrong place. Yes, it’s true – Arlovski is the only underdog I’m picking this week, and he’s hardly even an underdog. I’ve gone extremely chalky over the past month or so of UFC fight cards, and it’s actually paid off as the betting favourites have come through at a much higher rate than they have in the past. Let’s hope the pendulum doesn’t swing this weekend.
Lock of the Week
For my lock pick of the week, I’m liking Bruno ‘Blindado’ Silva at 20/33 in his middleweight fight against Andrew Sanchez. Silva is a scary knockout artist, finishing 17 of his 20 pro victims, including Wellington Turman in his UFC debut. And his opponent on Saturday, Andrew Sanchez, has had four of his six pro losses come via knockout. Silva is the pick, and if you want to get fancy and get some of that sweet, sweet plus money, take him via KO at 13/10.
If you want another lock, go with ‘The Monster’ Manon Fiorot at 10/27 as she tangles with Mayra Bueno Silva in a women’s flyweight fight. While Silva is very durable, having never been finished in a pro MMA fight before, Fiorot hits really hard and has knocked out six of her seven pro victims. You might want to sprinkle some money on Fiorot via KO and get a very nice 16/5 return.
*Odds correct at time of writing.