Last weekend’s UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez was another winning experience for me, pushing my hot streak to 13-straight weeks. Not to get too arrogant here, but maybe I do actually know what I’m doing picking fights, and I’m not just guessing as my wife has accused me of. Imagine that.
The UFC train rolls on this week with yet another Fight Night from their UFC Apex gym in Las Vegas (this gym of theirs was a godsend during the pandemic). We’ve got a couple of top women’s bantamweights main eventing this week, with a pivotal men’s welterweight battle going on right before them.
The main event in question would be between Ketlen Vieira and former champ Miesha Tate. Tate made a surprise return to the cage this past summer, after a five-year retirement that saw her have two kids and become an executive for the Asian MMA promotion ONE Championship. She looked fantastic in her return, finishing Marion Reneau with strikes this past July. However, Reneau was 44 years old, on a four-fight losing skid, and had announced that the Tate matchup would be her retirement fight. The 30-year-old Ketlen Vieira is a whole different kettle of fish.
So, I’m going with the younger, bigger, more active striker in Vieira at 4/5. There are too many unknowns with Tate at this point, especially considering this is a five-round fight, her first since July of 2016.
You heard @MieshaTate, #UFCVegas43 goes down THIS Saturday and you WON'T want to miss it
[ #UFCVegas43 | Nov 20 | Prelims 3𝙥𝙢𝙀𝙏 | Main Card 6𝙥𝙢𝙀𝙏 | Live on #ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/NdTnsWcq4l
— UFC (@ufc) November 17, 2021
Battle of the Grapplers
Now for that aforementioned welterweight fight – that would be between Michael Chiesa and Sean Brady. This is a battle between two strong grapplers – the former The Ultimate Fighter winner and 16-fight UFC veteran Chiesa and young upstart Brady, 4-0 in the UFC and 14-0 overall.
While both men are grapplers, Brady has the better grappling stats and is definitely the more physically built and stronger of the two men. He’s also the better and more active striker, which could be the difference maker on Saturday. I’m really liking Brady at a very reasonable 4/7.
Underdogs, you say? Ok, I’ll see if I can dig some up for you. Let’s start with ‘Top Gun’ Tucket Lutz at 11/10 for his featherweight fight against Pat Sabatini. After dropping his pro debut, Lutz has reeled off 12-straight wins, including his UFC debut and two fights on Dana White’s Contender Series. While he is taking this fight on short notice, he is the younger man, has a couple of inches of reach on Sabatini, and lands three times more strikes per minute than Saturday’s opponent. Plus, while Sabatini is a grappler, Lutz has better grappling stats. I’m liking the plus money here.
UFC Fight Night Lock of the Week
The only other plus money pick I’m siding with this week is Qileng Aori at 5/4 against Cody Durden in a prelim flyweight fight. Aori is slightly bigger, slightly younger, and the far more active striker in this matchup, so I think it’s a pretty solid underdog pick.
For my lock, I’m taking the biggest favourite on the card – Luana Pinheiro at 4/21 in her women’s strawweight fight against Sam Hughes that opens Saturday’s festivities. Hughes is taking this fight on short notice, which lowers her chances of winning to 39%, plus she’s yet to prove she is UFC caliber, having dropped her two fights in the octagon (and three of her last four fights overall). Additionally, Pinheiro is just plain better in all aspects of the sport. A fearsome finisher (seven of her nine pro wins and six of her last seven), you might want to splash some money down on her winning inside the distance.