For the second weekend in a row, the UFC will be headlined by the big boys as Jairzinho Rozenstruik battles with Ciryl Gane in a top heavyweight contender fight. Last Saturday I whiffed on the main event (I whiffed on most of the card, to be perfectly honest) and this week’s is a hard one to pick also.
I’m going with the French striker Ciryl Gane at 20/57, but I’m not confident in it. Gane is a perfect 7-0 as a pro, with three knockouts and three submissions and is 4-0 in the UFC. He’s also younger than Rozenstruik, has a three-inch reach advantage, and has the edge in the striking stats as well as the grappling stats.
So why my hesitation? ‘Bigi Boy’ Rozenstruik hits REALLY HARD! There are few men with the striking power the big Surinamese kickboxer possesses. His power also carries through for a five-round fight, as he showed in his clash with Alistair Overeem, where after being dominated through five rounds he knocked out Overeem with only four seconds left in the fight.
I’m counting on Gane’s grappling and reach advantage to carry the day for us here, but I’m not overly confident, especially at a number as high as 20/57.
Light Heavyweights: Ankalaev v Krylov
The co-main event is an easier one to call, I hope at least. Magomed Ankalaev is a superb light heavyweight prospect, winner of five straight and holder of a 14-1 pro record. His opponent on Saturday, Nikita Krylov, hasn’t been much more than a middling pro, going 7-5 in the UFC and swapping wins and losses back and forth over his last four fights. Ankalaev at 1/4 is the pick, but at that number it might not be worth your time.
Now for some picks that are definitely worth your time – the live underdogs I have pegged on this card. There are quite a few I’m keen on that could get us some of that sweet, sweet plus money.
We’ll start with the third fight from the top of the bill – a women’s flyweight bout between Montana De La Rosa and Mayra Bueno Silva. Earlier this week on the podcast I host I pegged Silva as my pick to win this fight. I have since rethought this position and am flipping to the underdog De La Rosa. Both these women are great grapplers, which probably means this fight turns into a striking battle. In this case I like De La Rosa due to her superior power (eight knockouts in 11 wins) and reach advantage. Grab her currently at 23/20.
An underdog my cohost Daniel Vreeland and I both like is Thiago Moises, currently at 8/5 for his lightweight fight with Alexander Hernandez. Perhaps people are still remembering Hernandez as the super prospect he was when he first entered the UFC. However, over his past four fights he is another fighter who has swapped wins with losses. Moises, meanwhile, is even younger than Hernandez, has won two straight fights, and has never been finished in a fight. I like this number for him.
Dan and I also both like Vince Cachero (13/10) in his bantamweight fight against the debuting Ronnie Lawrence. Cachero might have lost his UFC debut, but we like him to win this one. If you want another decent underdog, look to long-time UFC veteran Alex ‘Cowboy’ Oliviera. Cowboy is facing a debuting fighter who is taking this fight on only a few days’ notice, which is normally a recipe for a loss. Cowboy at 10/11 over Ramazan Kuramagomedov seems like a steal to me (note: there are no steals in sports gambling!).
*All odds correct at time of writing.