The good times kept rolling for me at UFC 271 last weekend, as I went 9-5 overall at the event (just don’t ask if I made any money). This week the UFC offers up a doozy of a card – and I’m not using doozy as a positive descriptor here. It’s more like – wow, they are really expecting people to watch this card?! The title of this fight spectacular is UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Hill, and it comes to you from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
To be fair, the original main event of Rafael dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev got moved off this card, forcing the co-main event to be moved up to the top line. Plus, another solid fight in Ilir Latifi vs Alexandr Romanov got cancelled, so the card was originally stronger than what we’re left with. What we actually are left with is a light heavyweight main event between Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill topping the bill.
Top Contenders
There’s nothing wrong with this matchup, as both guys are top contenders in the UFC’s 205-pound division (Walker is currently ranked #10; Hill #12). It’s also an interesting matchup because, seven fights into his UFC career, we still don’t know if Johnny Walker is any good, or even what kind of fighter he is. He originally burst onto the UFC scene as a whirling dervish, knocking out his first three opponents in spectacular fashion, accumulating himself a highlight reel in the process. Since then, he has lost three of his last four fights and fought extraordinarily tentative most of that time, the complete opposite of what we had come to expect from him. Which is my long way of saying that I don’t know which version of Johnny Walker is going to show up in the cage on Saturday night, which makes picking him to win this fight very difficult.
What I do know is Jamahal Hill has put up some striking numbers that are among the best in the UFC, and far more impressive than Walker’s. Not only is he twice more active landing strikes than his Brazilian counterpart, but he also has power, knocking out five of his nine pro victims. Hill at 20/51 is my pick.
Slim Pickings on the Undercard
I spent most of my digital ink on the main event because there isn’t much else to speak of on this card. And to make matters worse, it’s appearing to be very chalky to me, as there is only one underdog on the 12-fight lineup that I’m putting my money behind. That would be the epitome of the ‘grizzled veteran’, Jim Miller, who fights professionally for the 51st time on Saturday. He’s facing a debuting fighter in Nikolas Motta, who hasn’t fought since November of 2020. Making your debut on the big stage against the fighter who has the most UFC appearances in history under his belt is a tough ask. Plus, Miller hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down and is aging quite gracefully in a sport where that is a rarity. Let’s go with the underdog Miller at 29/20.
I’ll wrap things up with a couple of recommended plays for this weekend. First, take Jonathan Pearce at 4/17 for his featherweight bout against Christian Rodriguez. ‘CeeRod’ is stepping into this fight, his first in the UFC, on short notice, while Pearce has won two straight in the octagon – one via TKO, one via submission. Finally, I have Diana Belbita at 4/5 going up against Gloria de Paula in a women’s strawweight fight. I think Belbita is being severely underpriced here, as she should clearly be the better striker in this matchup.