The UFC invades the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this Saturday with their strongest card (on paper) of the past four years. And this despite it losing a key fight in Leon Edwards vs Jorge Masvidal. We’ve got a double-header of title fights at the top, while the rest of the 15-fight lineup is stacked with big names and/or up-and-coming prospects. Good times.
The main event is for the UFC Lightweight Championship, as newly crowned king Charles Oliveira makes his first title defense against Dustin Poirier, who is coming off stopping Conor McGregor in two fights earlier this year. This is one of the rare occasions when a champion enters a title defense as a betting underdog, as the current line at Mansion has Oliveira at 27/20 and the challenger Poirier at 5/9.
I’m also siding with the challenger Poirier in this fight. I think he’s a better striker than the champ, with far more power, and is also a strong enough grappler to fend off Oliveira’s potent ground attacks (or so I hope). I’m counting on Poirier capping off his career-year by having UFC gold strapped around his waist come Saturday.
The Greatest of All Time Cannot be Beaten
The co-main event is a far easier fight to predict and break down. That’s because it involves the greatest female fighter of all-time, Amanda Nunes. There are no other fighters out there (that I know of at least) that I think could beat Nunes while she’s still in her prime, so she’s always going to be my pick. Challenger Julianna Pena has no legitimate chance of winning on Saturday outside of a freak injury to the champ. Nunes at 1/12 is the pick (if you think that’s a line worth betting on).
Ok, dog time. No more of these 1/12 betting lines. First off, I’m taking Kai Kara-France at 11/10 in his main card flyweight fight against former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt. This will be Garbrandt’s first cut down to 125 pounds, so how he’ll look and how much his power will transfer down a weight class is unknown. Plus, Garbrandt tends to fight dumb and gets himself knocked out often. With an extra 10 pounds of water weight to cut, his brain is going to be even more susceptible to being knocked out. And Kara-France has some serious power and pushes an active striking pace. Let’s get that plus money.
Take a Flier on the Featherweight
Next, I’m taking a flier on featherweight Dan Ige at 27/20 going up against the returning Josh Emmett. Emmett has been on a hot streak, but he’s been out of action for 18 months with various injuries. Plus, while he has elite striking power for any weight class, he doesn’t throw many strikes. I’m looking for Ige to push the pace and outwork Emmett for the win.
From the booth to the battlegrounds, @DominickCruz is BACK
[ #UFC269 | Saturday | Live on ESPN+ PPV: https://t.co/2qb3nhkDee ] pic.twitter.com/ZTJSzCqN3w
— UFC (@ufc) December 8, 2021
At 20/21, former bantamweight champion (yet another one on this card) Dominick Cruz is technically an underdog in his fight against Pedro Munhoz (4/5). So, he qualifies as a dog I’m backing. I think his funky style and smarts can get him his hand raised against the skidding Munhoz (only one win over his last four fights).
I might be getting a little crazy with my final dog, but I’m taking Darrick Minner at 8/5 in his featherweight fight against Ryan Hall. Both men are grappling specialists, by Hall is on another planet from every other fighter in the UFC when it comes to grappling. However, he got knocked out badly in his last outing, and I think Minner, if he plays it safe, can outstrike him and get himself a victory. But if he plans on trying to outgrapple him, we might be in trouble.