The first part of the EPL season is over. On the eve of the start of the championship, journalists, experts, and ordinary spectators like you and me were asking several logical questions. Will Tottenham and Manchester United progress after their first offseason with new coaches? Can Newcastle become a top club? And we still don’t know the exact answer to any of these questions – we won’t know until a few months from now, at the end of May. But we do have answers to several others. Fortunately, these 15 rounds of the EPL have given enough food for thought that can help you make the right bets.
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Guardiola is ready to change; Ronaldo is not.
Buying Haaland from Borussia D. seemed like a slightly risky investment for the club because Guardiola didn’t want the player. “The club’s decision made it possible to make a good transfer for the future. Erling will be able to play for us for many, many years,” a quote from the coach in May, which almost directly suggests that the club and not himself initiated this transfer. Of course, no one was worried about Haaland’s career (he has time and is good enough to play often), but his identity and the uniqueness of his style of play were. Many were worried that with his uncomplicated notes about the false positions of players on the field, Guardiola would try to change, to reformat the Norwegian. And he didn’t.
The coach adjusted. Haaland doesn’t play in his system the way Agüero does. Even more: Haaland plays the way he played at Borussia D. Adjusting for City having more possession of the ball. For many years, Guardiola combined his tactical flexibility with inflexibility in the choice of roles for players on the field. He deliberately refused to bet on personalities rather than the system.
World’s Best Outsiders
Last season in the EPL, we had already said goodbye de facto to Norwich by the winter and to Watford in the early months of spring. The year before that, West Brom and Sheffield without a chance, a little earlier – the same Norwich, Huddersfield. The Premier League has accustomed us to the fact that each season we have at least one hopeless team, the departure of which can be predicted by October. There isn’t one right now. Fulham and Bournemouth have knocked down the league door with their feet and have not lost in most of their games in the first part of the season. Leeds and Everton don’t look like outsiders by game and lineup. Wolves, Southampton and Nottingham, have problems, but each team has arguments to surge in the spring.
Perhaps the underdogs of the current EPL season would be at least mid-tier in any other league. While the French are shrinking Ligue 1 to make it more competitive, the English could consider expanding their championship. There is simply no one left in the Premier League this season. For the first time, there is a feeling that, in a good way, it would be a pity for any of the teams to be relegated because they are not bad, and their squad is full of strong players. Consequently, there are no outright passing matches either: Southampton can be at the bottom but deprive Arsenal (1-1) of points. The phrase about toothy outsiders in England is a cliché. But there are no outsiders here right now. No one is bad. It’s just that the competition is more challenging.
To the problems.
Tottenham had their first offseason with Conte – bought in newcomers and completely fell apart by mid-November. MJ brought in a new coach in the summer – started so badly that they went into the World Cup break with zero goal difference. Chelsea lost Rüdiger, Christensen, and Alonso, found their replacements late – dismissed the coach after the championship’s first rounds due to unsatisfactory results. Nottingham had the most transfers in the league – now it is in the relegation zone. Almost all the risky projects did not give a 100% successful result. Everyone who could have failed in this half of the season sat in the puddle. It looks like a new trend in the EPL.
You change, you suffer, and you lose. In a low-competition environment, your changes are less painful: when everyone else has problems and local restructuring, your difficulties are less visible. Barcelona, for example, has half a new squad this season – they are 1st in La Liga (low competition). Still, they must qualify for the group stage in the Champions League (high competition). In England, changes are now exclusively punished. Conte used to be able to win the EPL in the first year – now it’s difficult for him to fight even for bronze medals. And it’s not about Antonio – it’s about the league. There are new rules: if you make a reset, expect trouble in the first few months.
The incompetence of bosses = collapse of the team
The idea of Nottingham management to buy a new squad was doomed in the first place because of the untimeliness of the purchase. Boly and Aurier were already signed in September after the TO was closed.
- Lodi arrived at the end of August;
- Froehler;
- Gibbs-White;
- Kouyate;
- Dennis in the middle of that month, when the season had already started.
The questionable decision to create a new team in the offseason was coupled with questionable training camp methods – in the end, and a strong lineup went on pause for the offseason because it didn’t have time to play. The same happened with Chelsea: the new boss fired the team responsible for transfers in the summer but needed to find a quick replacement for them. As a result, the Blues made late transfers – they failed to start the season and lost Tuchel.
Increased demand for “dominator coaches.”
Arteta and his Arsenal are the leaders of the EPL. Guardiola and his City are second. Both are betting on ball control. The winner of the championship race will be the one who is better able to squeeze points out of situations where he has the initiative for 90 minutes. It has been the case for several years in a row. The last person who didn’t bet on possession and still became champion was Chelsea and their then coach Conte. And then the constant competition between Liverpool and Man City. However, the current EPL has developed this trend: not only those who claim the title try to own the ball. The league is gradually filling up with coaches for whom control of the circle is essential to their philosophy.
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