The fate of the Stanley Cup may soon be known as we are already deep into the final series with the defending champions, Tampa Bay Lightning, closing in on a successful title defence against the Montreal Canadiens.
The Lighting were one of the favourites at 5/1 when the play-offs began and they have certainly justified their support, undeniably aided by the returns of Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, as they have established a 3-0 lead over the Canadiens in the Stanley Cup final.
Canadiens No Surprise for Tampa Title Defence
Tampa were always in control of opening play-off victories over Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes but were given a real scare by the New York Islanders in the Conference Finals, with the series going to a Game 7 in which the Lightning prevailed 1-0.
Not too many would have given the Canadiens much of a chance going into the post-season but they have continued to surprise, making it through to the Stanley Cup finals for the first time since 1993, the last time they won their record 35th Cup.
Montreal qualified for the play-offs in fourth position in the North Division, 18 points behind Toronto, but recovered from a 3-1 series deficit in the first round to beat the Leafs in Game 7.
The Habs breezed past the Winnipeg Jets in four games to set up a Conference Final clash against the Vegas Golden Knights – who had finished level on 80 points with Presidents’ Trophy winners Colorado in the regular season before beating the pre-playoff 15/4 favourites Avalanche 4-2 in the second round.
Again, Montreal surprised everyone in beating the Golden Knights 4-2 to reach the final, but it appears their dream run is coming to an abrupt end.
Goal Threats All Over for Lightning
The free-scoring Lightning have demonstrated their goal threat throughout the playoffs, demolishing the Islanders 8-0 in Game 5 in what was an otherwise tightly contested series.
Going into the playoffs, Kucherov hadn’t played for the Lightning since December 29 and he has clearly been desperate to make up for lost time as he has racked up 32 points in the post-season, some nine points clear of his nearest challenger.
In fact, the Lightning boast the top five points scorers in the post-season with Kucherov having more than doubled Montreal’s leading man, Nick Suzuki with 15, albeit having played one game more.
Worryingly for the Canadiens is that the Lightning have been able to light up goaltender Carey Price in opening up a 3-0 advantage, winning the first two games at the Amalie Arena 5-1 and 3-1, before scoring six goals in 30 shots in a 6-3 victory at Montreal’s Bell Centre in Game 3.
Game 4 takes place in the early hours of Tuesday morning with Tampa perhaps generously priced at 1/1 to win in regulation time, with the Canadiens on offer at 23/10 and the tie at 16/5.
Vasilevskiy Offering No Montreal Hope
Given the match differentials thus far, it may be more prudent for home backers to take the 27/20 on a winning result, which would of course include overtime, although the Lightning (-1.5) are available at 17/10 on the puck line and that is well worthy of consideration.
It would take something of a leap of faith to side with the Habs with Adnrei Vasilevskiy proving almost unbeatable in the Tampa goal, leading all goaltenders in the postseason with a .938 save percentage, while he has also recorded four shutouts.
Vasilevskiy restricted the Canadiens to one goal in 19 shots in Game 1, improving that massively to one goal in 43 shots in Game 2. Although he let in three goals last time out, the Canadiens still outshot the Lightning 35-30 in a 6-3 defeat and Vasilevskiy has outperformed opposite number Price on a grand scale.
*All odds correct at time of writing