BOOKMAKERS are predicting that Super Bowl LIV could be one of the closest matches in history and Jack Watson from SportNation takes an early look at how things could unfold on Sunday night.
The spread betting has settled at 1.5, after touching 1.0, in favour of the Chiefs and is unlikely to move again ahead of the game.
The low spread indicates bookmakers are expecting a tight contest given it’s only been lower than 1.5 twice in history (1982 and 2015).
Bookies are also anticipating that the match will be an unpredictable, high-scoring affair with the over/under score generally set at 54.5, well above the average total points in the previous 10 Super Bowls (46.9).
With sports betting steadily on the rise in the U.S, early predictions suggest that there could be over $160,000,000 bet on the NFL showpiece event, a new record.
In 2019, nearly 23 million Americans legally bet on the Super Bowl, for a total of $145,939,025. The record was in 2018 when it was $158,586,934.
Game line bets via SportNation.bet
Spread
- San Francisco 49ers +1.5: 10/11
- Kansas City Chiefs -1.5: 10/11
Total Points
- Over 54.5: 50/51
- Under 54.5: 25/29
Money line (outright winner)
- 49ers: 21/20
- Chiefs: 4/5
Stats
- In the last 10 years all 20 Super Bowl finalists had offenses which ranked in the top 11 in points-per-game in the season of their Super Bowl appearance or during the year before.
- Last year’s spread betting was: New England Patriots -3 vs L.A. Rams +3
- The 49ers and Chiefs amassed well-above the points average of their AFC rivals, meaning there is a very slim chance of last year’s dull affair, where the New England Patriots beat the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 in the lowest scoring Super Bowl in history.
- 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is generally known for his offensive tactics, but the defence has allowed just 25 yards per drive this season, the second best behind the New England Patriots.
- There are, of course, impressive attacking stats too. Shanahan has guided the 49ers to a league-high 85 attacking plays that cover over 20 yards this season, where 65 have come from a pass and 20 on the ground.
- The Chiefs have not featured in the Super Bowl since beating Minnesota Vikings in the 1969 season, they could end the third-longest title drought with victory on Sunday.
Best bets
Patrick Mahomes has scored a touchdown in three of the last seven games and is 15/4 to score anytime. A good performance from the quarterback and he could be a serious candidate to be named as MVP.
The total passing yards for Mahomes is set at 299.5 – over 5/6, under 10/11 – and considering that the 49ers had the best defence in their league and allowed 169.2 passing yards per game, the under seems a good bet here.
- Patrick Mahomes to be MVP
- Under 229.5 Chiefs Passing Yards
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