By Aaron Ashley.
Nadal worth opposing at short odds
In the absence of fierce rival Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal is a warm order to continue his love affair with France by winning the Paris Masters.
Nadal claimed his 13th French Open title at Roland Garros last month, blitzing Djokovic 6-0 6-2 7-5 in the final, but that was on his beloved clay and he has slightly more to prove on this faster, indoor hard court.
The number one seed has never won this event from seven attempts, either, with him being forced to withdraw at the semi-final stage last year and a tough draw makes his price skinny enough.
Nadal’s class may tell in Paris but the draw won’t make things easy for him. Red-hot Russian Andrey Rublev, who was victorious in Vienna last weekend, and German sensation Alexander Zverev are also housed in the top-half.
Talented Tsitsipas can Master Paris Field
With that in mind, tackling the bottom half of the draw looks the shrewdest advice for bettors and second seed Stefanos Tsitsipas looks a must for any punting portfolio.
The Greek star has been picky with his events, so arrives in Paris fresh and has a first-round bye before facing Ugo Humbert or Casper Ruud in the second round.
Tsitsipas showed his class when making the semi-finals of the French Open last month – he was beaten by Djokovic in five sets – and he seems to come into his own at the end of a season.
The world number five won the ATP Tour Finals in London this time last year. He navigated his way past Nadal, Daniil Medvedev and Zverev in the group stages before beating Roger Federer in the semis and overhauling Dominic Thiem in the final.
While many tend to struggle as a busy season comes to a close, Tsipistas has shown he thrives and it is worth noting he also made the quarter-finals here before losing to Djokovic, who is an absentee here.
Tsitsipas represents great each-way value with his biggest tests before the final likely to come from Milos Raonic and Medvedev.
However, Raonic withdrew from the European prior to his quarter-final clash with Grigor Dimitrov just over a week ago, so his well-being is unknown. Medvedev, on the other hand, is not operating to last season’s level and was dumped out in the last eight in Vienna last week by Kevin Anderson.
Sonego Should Show Vienna Heroics Were no Fluke
Lorenzo Sonego enjoyed a dream run to the final of the ATP Vienna last week and although brushed aside 6-4 6-4 in Sunday’s title-decider by a fired-up Rublev, he looks a good bet to show that performance was no fluke against Alexander Bublik in the opening round in Paris.
Sonego had toppled Dusan Lajovic, Hubert Hurkacz, Djokovic and Dan Evans in straight-sets before bumping into Rublev and with him not in first-round action until Tuesday, there should be few concerns of the quick turnaround.
Sonego outclassed Bublik 7-6 6-1 7-5 in the French Open just over a month ago and with his Kazakhstan opponent struggling for form at present, he looks good value for victory at 5/8.
Evans Worth a Dabble
Punters can take a chance on current British number one Evans springing a surprise on Stan Wawrinka at 9/5.
Evans reached the semi-finals in Vienna last week having overcome Dimitrov in the last eight and these two locked horns just under a month ago in St Petersburg, with Wawrinka coming from a set behind to win 3-6 7-6 7-5.
However, Wawrinka has since been beaten in the first round of his Austrian adventure by clay-court specialist Christrian Garin, which offers hope of an in-form Evans overturning the form at a nice price.
*All odds correct at time of writing
