There’s one spot left to fill at the NFL’s divisional round table as wild card weekend wraps up with an all-NFC West affair between the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals on Monday.
There was little to separate these two explosive but error-prone franchises during the regular season as they split their series; the Cardinals winning in LA during a hot start to the year, before the Rams took their revenge in the desert in Week 14.
The Rams would have the last laugh in the regular season too as they finished with a 12-5 record, one game better than Arizona, to scoop the NFC West title and home field advantage for this play-off showdown.
The Rams are 10/17 favourites to advance to the divisional round, where a date with the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers awaits and are being favoured by 3.5 points at 25/27 to cover the spread.
Watt can Cardinals do to stop the Rams?
The Cardinals are in need of some inspiration having stumbled over the line in the regular season, losing four of their final five games, but could get just the ticket in the form of a fit-again JJ Watt.
The defensive star hasn’t played for over two months due to a shoulder injury, but was a difference-maker for the Cardinals earlier in the season.
They allowed less than 17 points per game when Watt was fit and will need to be that stingy again if they are to keep up with the Rams.
LA’s offence averaged over 27 points per game during the regular season, ranking sixth in DVOA, and is led by the league’s top wide receiver in Cooper Kupp.
No receiver has had more catches, passing yards or touchdowns than Kupp this year and he’s 11/2 to score the game’s first TD, while he’s 20/23 to have over 106.5 receiving yards.
Kupp looks set for another big night, particularly with fellow wide receiver Van Jefferson a doubt.
Jefferson’s absence would be a setback for the Rams, who need to provide all the help they can to quarterback Matthew Stafford.
Despite leading the team to five wins in their final six games, Stafford’s play in the last month has been erratic, throwing as many interceptions as touchdown passes (8) in the last four games.
Donald the destroyer
Stafford is not the only quarterback entering this game at a down moment with Kyler Murray’s form having dipped too. Murray and the Cardinals offence was dynamite during their 7-0 start to the season but hasn’t been the same since top receiver DeAndre Hopkins got hurt, slipping to 22nd in DVOA after Week Nine.
Arizona can call upon their running back tandem of Chase Edmonds and James Connor, who were so effective when they won in LA in Week Four, but will need more than that to overcome an improving Rams defence.
Aaron Donald has once again proven to be a wrecking ball when it comes to attacking opposition offences, while Von Miller has slowly started to take on a bigger role following his mid-season move from the Denver Broncos.
Donald made a mess of the Cardinals porous offensive line in Week 14, recording three sacks, and he could prove the difference-maker in a tight play-off match-up.
These two finished the regular season trending in different directions and while both boast some talented playmakers, it’s worth siding with the Rams to cover, as they have done in eight of the last 10 games against the Cardinals.
Chiefs and Bills Set for mouth-watering showdown
The wild card round of the play-offs has so far gone the way many expected with only one underdog – the San Francisco 49ers – pulling off an upset on the road against a division winner.
The Niners survived a nail-biting ending to beat the Dallas Cowboys and can now look forward to a date with the 18/5 favourites for the Super Bowl, the Green Bay Packers, this Saturday.
The 49ers’ win came in by some margin the most competitive game of the round so far with the Buccaneers having eased by the Philadelphia Eagles 31-15 earlier in the day.
In the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs looked like Super Bowl contenders as they crushed the Pittsburgh Steelers 41-21 with Patrick Mahomes throwing five touchdowns.
The Chiefs are 4/1 to win the Super Bowl but face a very tough match-up next week when taking on a Buffalo Bills side who squashed the New England Patriots.
The remaining divisional round game pits the No.1 seeds Tennessee Titans against the Cincinnati Bengals, who beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday night to record their first play-off victory in 31 years.
*All odds correct at time of writing
