With four races of the 2021 Formula 1 season to go, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen has his first world title in the palm of his hands.
Back-to-back victories have seen the Dutchman move 19 points clear of reigning champion Lewis Hamilton, leaving the Mercedes man with absolutely no wiggle room heading into Sunday’s Brazilian Grand Prix.
Hamilton Unsure He Has the Pace
Hamilton was downbeat following his second place finish in the Mexican Grand Prix last weekend, claiming he’s not quick enough to catch Verstappen at this point in the season, and the odds for this week’s race at Interlagos reflect that.
Verstappen is the 8/15 favourite to claim his 10th win of the season and his second consecutive victory at Interlagos having triumphed the last time F1 visited South America in 2019. Hamilton is a 9/4 chance, with Red Bull’s Sergio Perez best of the rest at 14/1.
It’s a race Hamilton will feel like he needs to win to have a chance of clinching a record-breaking eighth Drivers’ title but that will prove easier said than done given Red Bull’s recent dominance.
Advantage Verstappen
Red Bull were expected to be the superior team in Mexico and aside from a wobble in qualifying, the race went to script as Verstappen took a comfortable win. The 24-year-old was 0.5 seconds quicker per lap than Hamilton, who did well to hold off Perez in the latter stages of the race.
It was the second race in a row where Mercedes had found it tough to match the pace of the Red Bulls after a disappointing showing in the United States.
They need to find answers to their problems quickly if they are to stop the drivers and constructors’ titles from slipping away from them with Verstappen now a 2/9 chance for the top individual prize, while Mercedes and Red Bull are 5/6 joint-favourite for the team honour.
Turning the tide in Brazil won’t prove easy though, Interlagos being one of the few tracks where Red Bull have always been competitive, even at the height of Mercedes’ powers.
Hamilton has won twice in Sao Paulo previously but didn’t enjoy his last visit to Brazil’s financial capital when demoted to seventh after a collision with Alexander Albon, while he was also passed twice by Verstappen in the same race.
Verstappen dominated that edition of the Brazilian Grand Prix from start to finish, securing pole position before claiming the chequered flag, while he should have also won the 2018 running.
With Verstappen’s Red Bull even better now than it was then, it’s tough to see a scenario where Hamilton finishes ahead of his rival, barring an incident or mechanical issue.
Bottas Has Role To Play
If Mercedes are to somehow overhaul Verstappen then they’ll need Valtteri Bottas to play his part. Fortunately, the Finn has been in good form since being told he’s to leave the team at the end of the season with bad luck costing him more points recently.
Bottas took a superb pole in Mexico, only to get tangled up in an incident on lap one, dropping him to the back of the grid.
Three of his four previous races have been blighted by mechanical issues but when he has been free to race he won the Turkish Grand Prix. He could bounce back with a podium finishing, ending Sergio Perez’s run of top three spots in the process.
The Red Bull driver took an emotional third place in his home country of Mexico last time out to bring up a third straight top three finish.
Elsewhere, Brazil has often been a strong track for Ferrari so look for Carlos Sainz Jr to go well. The Spaniard brought up his 11th consecutive points finish in Mexico, a run that includes seven top-six spots. He could feature amongst the top six once more at a track where he finished third on his last outing.
*All odds correct at time of writing.