Sunday brings us a feast of playoff football with three wildcard games to look forward to, headlined by the latest edition in a storied rivalry between two NFC franchises. The San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys ruled the NFL roost in the early 1990s with their NFC Championship games often deciding the Super Bowl winner, and both have aspirations of getting back on top this season.
It's time to write our own story.
Narrated by @Bgr8t#SFvsDAL#FTTB pic.twitter.com/9gRJgbQyWs
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 16, 2022
That showdown is the meat in the sandwich between the defending Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay taking on the Philadelphia Eagles before the Kansas City Chiefs do battle with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the early hours of Monday morning.
All three games have their selling points but as the saying goes, everything is bigger in Texas, and it only seems right to start with the ‘Boys and the Niners.
Cowboys Lacking Ammunition to Take Down Niners
Dallas powered to the NFC East title this year with a 12-5 record, winning five of their final six games and should be heading into the postseason full of confidence. However, doubts have entered the mind of the Cowboys, particularly on offence, which hasn’t been as sharp as it was earlier in the season, their rushing attack slipping to 26th in the league in run success rate.
It has been the defence that has carried them at times during the second half of the campaign with Micah Parsons and interception machine Trevon Diggs proving themselves elite. However, they are very much an all or nothing group and when they get it wrong then they really get it wrong, giving up 11.1 yards per pass completion.
It’s also a defence that could struggle to contain a diverse 49ers offence, one that is better than any team at putting away their chances when they get in the endzone. They have a strong running game and in Deebo Samuel they have the league’s premier hybrid running back/wide receiver, who looks value to have over 28.5 rushing yards at 20/23.
The difference-maker could be the 49ers’ defensive front, which ranks fifth in sacks and could really put the clamps on a struggling Dallas offence. The 49ers are 27/20 to win the game outright and 20/21 to cover a three-point spread, which the Niners have achieved in five of their last six games as a road underdog.
Fournette to Rein on Eagles Parade
Tampa Bay are strong favourites to take care of the outsiders for the NFC title, the Eagles in Sunday’s first game, the hosts giving up 8.5 points on the spread at 25/27. The Buccaneers only won by six when the two teams met in Week 6 of the regular season and a forecast for heavy rain in the area on Sunday could dampen enthusiasm in backing the champs to cover.
The wet weather should favour the Eagles, who have the league’s number one rushing attack, averaging over 159 yards per game. However, the Bucs, alongside having the greatest quarterback of all-time in Tom Brady, have a decent running back themselves who could prove decisive.
Leonard Fournette scored two touchdowns when the sides clashed earlier in the year and should have a sizeable role to play on his return from injury. Fournette is 20/23 to have over 63.5 rushing yards, a mark he’s surpassed in five of his last 11 games, including against the Eagles. If Fournette has a big day and Brady does his thing, the Bucs should win with a Fournette anytime TD and Tampa Bay to win double priced at 20/21.
Steelers Hope to Stand Up to Chiefs
From one heavy favourite to another as the Chiefs take on the Steelers, who were manhandled 36-10 when they visited Kansas City in Week 16. That result has led to the Chiefs being made 12.5-point favourites, one of the biggest spreads in wild card history. There have only been eight playoff games featuring handicaps of 12 points or more and the favourite is 4-4 against the spread in that time.
It’s a lot of points to give up but the Pittsburgh offence is so bad that it’s tough to imagine them staying in touch against a Chiefs team allowing less than 18 points per game at home this year. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will retire whenever the Steelers’ season ends and will do well to go toe-to-toe with Chiefs counterpart Patrick Mahomes.
It’s down to the defence and sack king TJ Watt to keep this close for the Steelers and that suggests playing the points line might be more prudent. Watt wasn’t fit the last time Pittsburgh faced the Chiefs and can make a big difference, while the Steelers’ secondary has looked better recently, meaning it could be worth taking under 46 points at 25/27.
*All odds correct at time of writing
