What a Saturday it turned out to be to kick off SUPER Wild Card Weekend last night with the 49ers trailing at the half before their class shone through for an easy 41-23 win in the end over the Seahawks. Brock Purdy the 7th round rookie, the final pick of the draft carried on his remarkable start in the NFL with another win, his mobility proving key on several of his TD throws and Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel both stepped up with well over 100 yards and a TD each.
The Chargers and Jaguars game overnight was a thriller though, really putting the WILD into Wild Card weekend as Trevor Lawrence some how recovered from throwing 4 interceptions in the first half to bring the Jaguars back in stunning fashion in the second half to win 31-30 against the hapless Chargers, the mental fortitude to recover from some TERRIBLE throws is something to behold and they go on to probably face the Chiefs next weekend. – Lawrence still hasn’t lost on a Saturday through high school, college and now the NFL.
This evenings games don’t look the best on paper with some big spreads but the middle game should be interesting with many expecting an upset – which I guess means it won’t be an upset.
Dolphins +13.5 @ Bills: 43.5
Skylar Thompson starts for the Dolphins, hence the lines, the 3rd string QB didn’t do much in their win against the Jets last week and the addition of Raheem Mostert to the “likely out” list hurts their offense even more. It should mean Jeff Wilson gets a lot of carries, he and Salvon Ahmed on the ground will struggle in a likely poor game-script which should lead the Dolphins into more passing than rushing.
Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill have been the best duo in the league this year, both were off the field with knocks last week but will play and do their best with Skylar at QB, they can get open and can take the ball to the house from anywhere so there’s a little hope for Dolphins fans there. Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe shared 11 targets last week for the Dolphins as the kid likes the big guys in the passing game.
The Bills should walk this one and after Nyheim Hines exorcised some demons for them by scoring on the opening kick off return last week they were in control against a tough Patriots defense. Josh Allen is looking for his first Super Bowl, he has one of the best in Stefon Diggs to get the ball to as he has done for most of the year. Gabe Davis is incredibly hit or miss, Isaiah McKenzie has done well in the slot and they’ve brought back Cole Beasley and John Brown in the passing game as well. Dawson Knox has scored in their last 4 games including against this opponent.
The run game is split between Singletary and Cook with Cook more involved as the season has gone along, but Singletary still the one, and Josh Allen is one of the best runners in the league as well when called upon.
The Bills should win easily, but I’m struggling to taken -13.5, I would say it’s the most likely outcome though – My bet for this one – Dawson Knox anytime TD – 2/1 (Bet365 and most others)
Giants +3 @ Vikings: 48
These two played on Christmas Eve with the Giants 4.5 point underdogs losing on the final kick of the game in a closely fought contest.
Daniel Jones has earned himself a contract at QB for the Giants this year, he’s kept the ball safe with just 5 interceptions and done well to get anything out of the talent (or lack of) in the WR corps. He’s mobile and his line set at 40.5 is a tempter, he ran for 91 and 2 TDs in their game vs. the Colts which secured their playoff spot.
Saquon Barkley will have appreciated the week off last week as the Giants rested all their starters to close out the season, he’s run well for most of the year before a down-patch in the middle but if back to relatively full health he’ll be looking forward to this matchup against a poor Vikings defense.
The WR group was rested last week too, a crazy world where Darius Slayton, Richie James and Isaiah Hogkins are getting rested as starters in a game but here we are. All performed well in the regular season game between the teams, James in the slot the most interesting in this matchup, Slayton the deep threat and Hodgkins seems to be able to get free near the endzone.
The Vikings on paper look like far the better team but that’s never the case with Kirk Cousins at QB, he can win a game, he can lose a game it all depends how he is on the day, and he did well in the game a month ago with 299 and 3 TDs. It helps having an all-world receiver on the team of course.
Justin Jefferson is going to be the highest-paid non-QB in the game when he signs his contract, he had 12 catches for 133 and a TD against the Giants in their match and will look for yet another 100 yard game in this one. Adam Thielen seems to be down to 3rd target now with the emergence of KJ Osborn and the acquisition of TJ Hockenson has been good for them as well, he had 13 catches in the regular season game and 2 TDs.
All the talk this week has been of a Giants win against the fraudulent Vikings, but the line hasn’t moved and there’s a strong record of first-time playoff QBs vs. non-first time QBs in the playoffs which goes the Vikings way. I have nothing at all on the spread here, although the “Tri-bet” market is one to look at – 10/11 on Paddypower for either team to win by 7 or fewer points seems generous.
Ravens +8.5 @ Bengals: 40.5
The night closes with a rematch of last weeks game as the Bengals host the Ravens once more although the personnel on the Ravens side will be a lot different after they rested key players in readiness for this game.
Tyler Huntley gets another start at QB with Lamar Jackson out, they average under 20 points with him, so they’ll be hoping for a strong defensive game. JK Dobbins returns at running back and he’s done well since coming back from injury averaging over 6 yards per carry, Gus Edwards has cleared protocol and plays and Kenyan Drake has proven himself a good fit on the offense as well.
The passing game is probably Mark Andrews and fellow tight end Isaiah Likely who had 100 yards last week with Andrews rested. The WRs aren’t great, “led” by Demarcus Robinsons and Sammy Watkins who was picked up a few weeks ago to return to the team.
Their defense is the key and it’s been the best in the league since picking up Roquan Smith who they gave a big contract to this week, they’ll get pressure and cause issues for the Bengals.
Joe Burrow is already one of the best in the league, cool under pressure and generally finds the open man from his super-talented pass-catching group. He’s dealt with well pressure this year and with the right side of the line compromised will have to do that tonight as well.
Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are the best trio in the league and Hayden Hurst and Trenton Irwin provide good options as well. Chase scored last week, going up and over his defender and Tee Higgins was wide open for a walk-in TD which was overthrown by Burrow. They won’t have it easy but their talent should shine through.
The run game hasn’t been great for the Bengals, although Joe Mixon has had blow up games, he seems to have lost a step this year, but Samaje Perine has proven himself a very reliable #2 in that area for them.
They are one of the best defenses in the league as well, especially against the run where DJ Reader has been one of the top players at his position.
It won’t be easy for the Bengals, but Joe Burrow has covered the spread in 19 of 23 games, and they definitely CAN in this one. I’m a pessimistic Bengals fan though and the issues on the right side of the OL worry me, the Ravens defense is very good and while they won’t put up many points they should keep it close.
Bets for me here – Irwin o6.5 rec. yards – basically getting one reception, which I think he will, and Hayden Hurst to score against the team who drafted him – around 3/1 (10/3 PaddyPower)
Also, the Bengals haven’t allowed a 1st Quarter TD against them for 10 games now, they’re -2.5 on the 1st quarter spread (annoyingly that’s up from 0.5 earlier in the week)
Good Luck if you’re betting tonight, and hopefully my Bengals make it through to face the Bills (probably) next week #WhoDey.
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