A terrible week for me last week, a one-off this season as nothing came in. The Jets somehow beat my Bengals with a ton of points, the Chargers lost at home, Zeke didn’t score with a backup QB despite having a big game and the Lions were so dominated they couldn’t even throw the ball to Swift a couple of yards down the field.
But we’re still in profit on the year, and looking to bounce back here.
NFL Week 9
Best Spread
It’s one of the best weeks in the last month for games this weekend, but the spreads seem to be spot on again. There’s a lot of people who like the Chargers to beat the Eagles but I’m off of the Chargers after seeing bits of their last two games, it seems to have fallen off for Herbert, sure he might bounce back here but I’m ignoring that game.
I actually think my Bengals win against the Browns but I’m not willing to jinx them. The Browns are beaten up while the Bengals are pretty much at full health, it’s their best chance in a couple of years to win against them and they’ve been covering the spreads even in those defeats.
I’m going to take a little risk though on the Raiders winning in New York. It’s safe to say it’s been a roller-coaster year for them off the field overcoming Gruden’s release and now seeing one of their stars on his way to LV Pen. after a horrible incident in the week.
But they’ve been surprisingly good so far and with Darren Waller returning I think Derek Carr will still be able to move the ball. This bet though is as much a fade of Daniel Jones and the Giants as it is a bet on the Raiders. Jones has a horrible home record winning just 5 games at the Metlife in his career and his options are still limited through injury.
We know Saquon Barkley is missing out again so it will be Devontae Booker at RB, not great. Sterling Shepard misses out but Kadarius Toney will play before inevitably picking up an injury after a few plays. They just lack depth and have been killed with cluster injuries at WR.
Raiders -3 @ 10/11 (Everywhere)
Best Total
Right, let’s get back on the total train. I actually had a couple of winners on personal bets and selections last week on totals. Maybe I’m finally getting my eye in?
There’s one I’ve been high on all week and despite it falling from 43 points on Monday night I’m still going to be taking the Patriots v Panthers game to go under 41.5 points which is the price everywhere now, bumped up a touch from 41 on the news that McCaffrey should be back.
It’s unknown whether the Panthers are starting Sam Darnold coming through a concussion and shoulder injury or PJ Walker off of a 3 from 22 game when he came in as relief a couple of games ago. Either way it’s not good for the passing game, and the Panthers want to push the run game anyway with 40+ carries on the ground last week against the Falcons.
The Patriots like to run the ball as well, typified by an 8 minute field goal drive to essentially wind down their game against the Chargers last week.
Both teams are stronger on defense than offense and want to run the ball, that all leads me to the under here.
Patriots v Panthers – Under 41.5 @ 10/11 (Everywhere)
Best TD Scorer
It’s a weird week for TD prices, I like a lot of tight ends to find the endzone this week and that means a lot of 3/1+ prices. CJ Uzomah, Albert Okwuegbunam, Tyler Conklin all have decent matchups and have increasing workloads in recent weeks.
So do I go for a longer shot, or do I play it safe? Why not a little of both.
Cooper Kupp is 4/5 at Bet365. I can’t ignore that price on someone with 10 TDs this year going up against a team who have injuries in the secondary and are particularly poor vs. slot receivers.
And my bigger price is going to have to be Big Al, Albert Okwuegbunam for the Denver Broncos against the Cowboys. It looks like Noah Fant is going to miss out as he’s on the Covid list so that should mean more for the big man in the middle of the field coming off of 3 receptions last week while Fant had 4 and averaged 6 targets per game this season. I think he’s up around 6 or 7 targets and I’m hoping he finds the endzone again at 9/2 on Paddypower and 365.
Best TD scorers – Cooper Kupp – 4/5 (365), Albert O – 9/2 (PP/365)
I’ll stick with those 4, I’ve got a couple of props I like but I’m struggling to find anything I’m really interested in. Jarvis Landry over rec yards and receptions, Hayden Hurst over on rec. yards with Pitts likely getting covered by Lattimore (might be worth a look on his under actually) Joe Burrow to throw an interception is evens. As always Gesicki and/or Waddle receptions 4.5 and 5.5 respectively.
But nothing that I think is completely wrong this week.
Good luck if you follow along, Adam (@TouchdownTips on twitter)
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