What a thrilling week of football there was in Week 7! Were all the shocks used up last week or do we have any remaining for Hallowe’en week. It wasn’t a good week for the column as things were turned upside-down a little, the Bills losing to the Patriots the biggest shock for me personally. The Buccs lost at home, the Browns and Colts flew over the total by half time and Gardner Minshew’s team were screwed over by two terrible calls at the end of the game to gift the Browns the win with PJ Walker while Cooper Kupp was quiet with Puka Nacua getting the main role against the Steelers. The props were very solid once more though with Josh Dobbs easily topping his rushing line and Josh Downs hitting 5 receptions once more.
REMEMBER WE’RE AN HOUR EARLY THIS WEEK! 5PM, 825 AND 1210 KICKOFFS!
There’s some good looking games on a FULL slate this weekend, Cowboys and Rams is the early Sky game in the UK, the Cowboys now out to a TD favourite in that one and the Bengals and 49ers in the late game looks like it will be a cracker.
Best Spread
Texans -3 @ Panthers (Alt. Spread at 4/5)
I’m fudging things a little on this one as the line was 3 points for a lot of the week before ticking up to 3.5 yesterday, but the Texans winning in Carolina is my favourite look of the week so I’ll take the slight drop in odds from the usual 5/6 or so to 4/5.
If reports are correct these were the two QBs the Panthers were looking at when they traded up to the 1st pick of the draft this year and it looks so far like they made the wrong choice. CJ Stroud has been fantastic to start the season, just the 1 interception and 9 TDs in his 6 games this season. I thought they were defunct of weapons on offense but the combination of Tank Dell and Nico Collins has been very reliable for them and the signing of Dalton Schultz looks like it’s been a good move as well as he gets further involved. They’re decent on the ground too with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singeltary moving the ball well in general.
The Panthers are the worst team in the league, they can’t protect and their defense has been poor all year as well, the talent for Bryce Young to throw to is basically Adam Thielen and not much else with DJ Chark and TE Tommy Tremble only offering a little alongside the double-digit receptions for Thielen on a weekly basis. Miles Sanders will be fresh after a week off but they have struggled to get the run game going with a weak offensive line.
I have been impressed with the Texans and think they win another here.
Best Total
Rams vs. Cowboys o45.5
It’s a weird week for totals, there isn’t a single game set at 50 points or higher but even with so many low totals my instinct is still to lean under on the majority of them, but I know there must be value on an over somewhere…the game above could be the one but I’ve been stung by the Panthers already this year.
I’ll go for the early Sky game being entertaining… The Rams struggled against a great Steelers defense last week but they have shown they can put up points and playing an NFC rival usually helps teams.
Matthew Stafford has Kupp and Nacua to throw to and with a little more time available this week the Frankenstein backfield of Henderson and Freeman should look a bit better coming into this one against a Cowboys defense which without Trevon Diggs has been susceptible.
The Cowboys are capable of putting up points each week although it does require Dak Prescott feeling good and coming off a bye he should be fully prepped to take advantage of a Rams defense which lacks talent other than Aaron Donald.
Best TD Scorer
Odell Beckham – 9/2 (BetVictor)
I want to take Tank Dell or Dalton Schultz scoring against the Panthers and they’re decent prices, but with Stroud only throwing a max of 2 TDs per game there are likely to be limited chances in that game.
So I’ll pivot down to the Ravens who could be the highest scoring team of the weekend and go for the mercurial Odell Beckham Jnr. at a huge 9/2. The Cardinals have been terrible against outside WRs this year and with the Ravens likely to be in control they’ll be able to give their new signing more of the ball. He had his best game of the season last week against the hapless Lions and should get at least 5 catches against this terrible defense.
Best Player Prop
Rhamondre Stevenson o18.5 receiving yards
The Patriots pulled off the biggest shock (maybe of the season) last weekend as they beat the Bills at Foxborough. I don’t think they’ll win this one against a Dolphins team which has been destroying poor opponents on the whole, but with this being an early re-match we can see that the Patriots may be able to at least slow Tyreek Hill.
They seem to have finally realised in recent weeks that Stevenson is a good catcher of the ball out of the backfield and that may be a way for them to get the ball moving a little more easily. He’s had 24 and 51 over the last fortnight with at least 5 receptions in each as they give Zeke Elliott a little more of the early down work. Stevenson had 3 receptions against the Dolphins in their first matchup so I like him to hit 20 yards through the air in this one.
Good Luck with your bets this weekend and enjoy the slightly earlier finish, we should be all wrapped up by midnight!
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