A rougher week last just one of 4 winning, taking me to 18-16-1 on the season, but a nice 11 points of profit so far this year thanks to some good prices on TD scorers.
Some big spreads again this week with the AFC LEADING CINCINNATI BENGALS double digit favourites for the first time since 2017. The first time they’ve been double digit favourites ON THE ROAD since at least 2008. Unchartered territory for my team. WHO DEY.
NFL Week 8
REMEMBER THAT GAMES ARE AN HOUR EARLIER THIS WEEK! 1700, 2005 AND 0020 FOR THE THREE MAIN TIMES
So a lot of large spreads again this week, but a few that seem to be a little derisory to some teams.
The Eagles just over a field goal at Detroit, the Seahawks just over a field goal at home to the Jags? Seems a little offensive even with Geno Smith under center. I like the Chargers -4.5 at home to the Patriots. So really it’s between these three, it’s just figuring who to trust.
Best spread bet.
If it’s a case of trust I have to go for the Chargers to beat the Patriots. Fair enough Bill Belichick is the best coach there’s ever been, but I’m liking Brandon Staley as coach of the Chargers and I think after them getting spanked by the Ravens before their bye that he’ll have spent the week working on this game and something planned to get the win.
The worry was Austin Ekeler coming into this game as he appeared on the injury report after Wednesday training but he’s declared himself ready to go and will be playing in this one, and I would expect get a full workload. He, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are good enough to move the ball on anyone with Justin Herbert under center.
Herbert had the worst game of his career against the Patriots in a 45-0 loss last season, he’ll be better this time around as he furthers his push for MVP.
The Patriots have won three games this season. Against the Jets twice and the Texans. I can’t be having them beating a far better team in the Chargers.
Chargers -4.5
Best total.
A little detour on the total bet this week, and one I might regret as I get more confident in my own team, the Bengals are 11 point favourites in New York against the Mike White led Jets. The QB making his first start after replacing Zach Wilson during the game last week.
The total is just 43 on the whole game, the Bengals should put up points, but I don’t think the Jets will.
I like the Jets team total UNDER 14.5 points in this one at 5/6
Best TD bet.
As always a few on my list for this week, Bet365 once again with some stand out prices. D’Andre Swift is the one bright spark for the Lions, he’s at 13/8 still against the Eagles. You can get plus money on Joe Mixon and Ja’marr Chase in the game against the Jets, I prefer Mixon at 11/10 on that one just because they may get ahead and run the ball a lot, in fact Samaje Perine at 7/2 probably isn’t stupid if the game goes to plan for them.
This week though I’ll go to Ezekiel Elliott at Even money for the Dallas Cowboys in the late game against the Vikings.
There’s some worries over whether Dak Prescott will play at QB for the Cowboys, but either way I think the workload for Zeke and Pollard will be higher than usual as they either keep the ball out of Cooper Rush’s hands or run more to reduce the risk on Dak re-aggravating his calf injury.
Zeke has 6 TDs this season and gets the redzone work. Even money is too good to refuse.
Best players prop.
I usually have a lot of player props I like but I’m struggling a little for anything that pops out this week.
I am tempted to just stick to Ja’marr Chase longest reception as he continues to go over that line every single week. Tyler Higbee has a good matchup at tight end against the Texans, Mike Gesicki has been a target of mine for weeks now, he’s up to 4.5 now and playing a good defense so I’m giving him a miss this week.
The Eagles run game has been terrible… however. It’s now thinned out with Miles Sanders out for 3 games meaning a split between Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott…
I’ll admit I was going to take a punt on one of their rushing yards. HOWEVER. I’ve just realised that Jordan Howard has been called up from the practise squad and could see a big workload. So I’ll avoid them, but I’ll take 4/1 on Howard anytime (PP). He’s a goal-line vulture.
Anyway, prop – D’Andre Swift o4.5 receptions – 8/13 (Skybet) – This line is 5.5 everywhere else, he’s gone over the 4.5 in 5 of 7 games this season, all of their last 3 games. He’s the main man there.
Bets
- Chargers -4.5
- Jets u14.5 team total
- Zeke anytime – 1/1
- Swift o4.5 receptions
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