After another clean sweep on the selections including a 10/3 and a 7/4 which I didn’t count as an official pick in the write up with Swift finding the endzone last week I’m looking to Week 7 to keep up the good form. It’s a rough week on the whole with 3 or 4 of the games un-betable on their gigantic spreads. There will be value around, but it’s a rough one this week.
NFL Week 7
There really are a few horrible games in prospect according to the spread, with 5 of the earlier games at least a TD apart.
Best Spread
So with limited lines that I would want to use I’m down to 2 or 3 to choose from. The Ravens have dominated the Bengals in recent years but I think this Bengals team is a lot better, I still think the Ravens may cover the 6.5, but if they Bengals are as good as I think then it might be a little closer.
There’s a huge spread I’m weirdly interested in, but taking the worst team in the league to do anything against the unbeaten team probably isn’t sensible. My main reason for thinking the Texans cover the 18 points is that the Cardinals are playing the Packers on Thursday night and might ease up or rest players towards the end of the game. It still needs the Texans to actually do something though which is a risk.
So I’ll go for the Eagles getting 2.5 against the Raiders.
The Raiders got a bit of a bounce from Gruden leaving them last week as they beat the Broncos with deep shots to Ruggs, Edwards and Waller. This week though they go up against a well organised Eagles defense which does well keeping players in front of them, as well as getting pressure up front where they should beat a poor Raiders offensive line.
The Eagles are tough for me to call on offense but Jalen Hurts seems to be able to move the ball mainly with Devonta Smith, as well as running for first down and scores each week, he’s scored 4 in his last 2 games on the ground. I really want them to get Miles Sanders involved as they don’t seem to have bothered using the run game so far this year.
This is mainly backing the defensive line of the Eagles to be better than the offensive line of the Raiders, so I’m happy to go for them getting points on the road.
Best spread – Eagles +2.5 (most)
I think I’m going to give Totals a miss again this week, no point going back to an area I’ve proven unable to judge so far this year. There’s a few unders I wrote about in my full previews but nothing I’m betting on.
Best TD Scorers
After a couple of nice wins last week I’m very tempted to take Ricky Seals-Jones again as he’s priced around 3/1 once more, after playing every snap in last weeks loss to the Chiefs. He’s on the field, he’s running routes and he’ll get redzone chances.
My lower priced guy this week though is Darrell Henderson for the Rams. He’s a standout price at Bet365 where he’s 5/6 compared to the 4/9 available elsewhere.
It’s a big spread and he’s the main running back so I’m expecting him to get a lot of carries. He’s scored in all but one game this year, so getting near evens is good enough for me to take him in this one.
For someone at a bigger price it’s national tight end day, or week, or something promoting that position and there’s a few at decent prices with Hunter Henry around 10/3 and Big Mo Alie-Cox around 5/1 to find the endzone this week. Henry has 3 games in a row with a score while Mo scored last week on his only reception.
But I think I’ll land on Kyle Pitts to score for the second game in a row at bigger than 2/1 on Paddypower. He’s available at 11/5 on there, and they’re coming off their bye week taking on a Dolphins team who decided not to take theirs after playing in London. The linebacker group for the Dolphins hasn’t been good this year, if they bring back Howard and Jones at cornerback then Pitts should get easier coverage in the middle of the field.
Best TD bets; Henderson 5/6, Pitts 11/5
Best Player props.
There’s another tight end who most of NFL Twitter are on this week with Mike Gesicki still lined in the early 40s for receiving yards this week. He’s topped that line in 4 games in a row, so it would be more surprising if he stays under against a terrible Falcons defense.
I think I’m looking at the longest reception market again, it’s either Ja’marr Chase who’s topped his line in every game but plays against the best defense he’s faced all year with a long of 26.5 or the speedster on the other side of the ball, and that’s where I’m going for this one.
Marquise Brown is down at 23.5 for longest reception, he’s gone over that line in every game this season, except last week where he would have done had he not dropped a TD. I like the Bengals defense, but I’m taking the lower line of the two guys here.
Best player prop; Marquise Brown longest reception over 23.5 – 10/11 (365/Hills)
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