After an up-and-down weekend on the NFL last week I’m back with a look at the Sunday games for Week 6 of the NFL.
A look back at last week first, injuries cost us all over the shop, Saquon Barkley would have flown over his line in London but missed half the game through injury, the Dolphins lost their QB on the first drive of the game and that immediately ruined any chance of them winning.
On the plus side we hit the over on the total easily and Adam Trautman went easily over his receiving line, also scored at a big price as well.
On to Week 6 where there’s a couple of HUUUUGE games coming in the late window with the Chiefs hosting the Bills in a game which could, even at this early time in the season, decide who gets home-field advantage in the post-season, something which the Bills will be determined to achieve having been knocked out in consecutive years playing in Arrowhead. I’ll have a prop from that game later, but it’s too tight to call a winner. The Bills are favourites and I do believe they cover, but it’s one I just want to enjoy and maybe have some in-play betting on.
The Sunday Night Football game is the Cowboys at the Eagles, a game which could pretty much settle the NFC East should the Eagles win and take themselves to 6-0. They’re nearly a TD favourite and they should at least win against a Cowboys team who’ve been relying on their defense killing poor offensive lines and dominating games for them. The Eagles have a GREAT offensive line so I think it could be a bit of a struggle for the Cowboys if Cooper Rush is forced to chase the game.
That’s a quick look at the bigger games of the weekend, now on to the picks.
Best Spread Bet
49ers -4.5 @ Falcons
We all need clarity and some self-realisation some times, and I have that knowing that my spread picks have been poor this year, but there’s a good trend on this one with the 49ers having their second road game in a row. They have figured out how to deal with the travel and that’s by staying out East and having a mini-training camp. That tactic has worked well for them in recent years as they post a 4-0 against the spread record in second road games.
That’s the trend that we’re looking at here, and even if they weren’t staying away I would probably be looking at them covering the spread against a team who are talent-poor. The Falcons are well coached but with Cordarelle Patterson missing again they’re looking at rookie Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley to run the ball and Drake London being the main man in the passing game. It’s not great against the best defense in the league.
On the other side of the ball the 49ers offense should be able to run all over a bottom 5 rush defense who gave up a lot to Lenny Fournette and the Bucs last week. That means a big game for Jeff Wilson and Tevin Coleman who came in last week and finished with TWO TDs.
The 49ers haven’t allowed 20 points this season, they should put up 25+ and cover the spread.
Best Total
Bengals v Saints UNDER 43
The Bengals are solid under team this season with their offense struggling to get big plays and the defense locking down teams, especially in the second half of games where they’re let to allow a single TD this season.
The Saints are missing Marshon Lattimore on defense which means the Bengals should have a slightly easier time than expected moving the ball, but they’re also missing their top 3 wide receivers on offense with Thomas, Landry and Olave all missing out, so they may well be struggling to move the ball themselves. Alvin Kamara will probably get a lot of work, Callaway, Trautman and of course Taysom Hill who ran in 3 scores and threw one last week against the Seahawks.
Good defenses v Poor/depleted offenses… It should go under.
Best TD scorer
Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Browns
This is likely to be a very run-heavy game on both sides of the ball with neither being loaded with talent in the pass-catching game and both proving themselves effective on the ground this year.
Nick Chubb is the best RB in the league this year breaking tackles and running all over the Chargers last week and he should do the same again against a Pats team who rank 28th against the run according to DVOA, but there’s a few teams worse than them, and the Browns are one of them sitting 32nd against the run. DEAD LAST.
Stevenson is usually in a time-share with Damien Harris, but he left the game last week and seems unlikely to suit up tonight, his injury meant that Steve-o finished with 161 yards on 25 carries and did everything but score. This week I’m expecting a similar amount of carries, but he WILL find the Endzone. 9/4 for Chubb and Stevenson scoring at Skybet seems decent enough too.
Best player prop
George Pickens o47.5 receiving yards (Steelers v Bucs)
The Steelers are a mess at the moment, it’s wonderful, but they do have some talent on offense and with Kenny Pickett now starting for them they are targeting rookie George Pickens a lot more, in the two starts with Pickett has so far he’s provided 102 and 83 rec. yards for his wide receiver.
The Steelers defense has been decimated so the Bucs should be leading and putting up points which means that the kids will have to chase the game, that means more passing and more for Pickens.
Others in consideration were Adam Trautman again, his line was 13,5, but has bumped over night to 21.5, you can get 11/1 on him scoring two games in a row at Ladbrokes though. – Travis Etienne for the Jags is seemingly the lead back there now over James Robinson, and Raheem Mostert has taken that role in Miami, but his line was a touch high for me, longest rush on those two RBs is probably the better option is you go for them.
Good Luck all
#WhoDEY
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