A frustrating week on here for me, the London game went fine, Patterson easily cleared his line, but the Bengals and Packers game somehow stayed under the total, Jefferson went over 100 yards but didn’t score, and the Titans won so easily they didn’t have to give Henry anything in the passing game which killed that one, meaning a disappointing 1-3 on the Sunday afternoon bets.
Still 8 points in profit for the season though, and I’m more confident in a few this week so onwards and upwards.
NFL Week 6
Some great games on the slate this week highlighted by the unbeaten Cardinals going to the Browns and the Chargers taking on the Ravens in Baltimore. They could go either way in my opinion so I’ll give them a miss, and take someone else as my best chance of covering the spread.
Best spread
I’m going against a lot of supposed sharps here, and probably shouldn’t be boasting about doing that, but there’s only one way I see the Cowboys vs the Patriots going. I don’t see how the Patriots slow the Cowboys down enough and if they aren’t capable of doing that then I don’t see any way they managed to go score for score with them.
The logic behind not backing the Cowboys here is that they’re 5-0 against the spread this year, meaning the line is inflated as the bookies try and win back some cash, they’re also the most public team in the league, so spreads are inflated their way as well, therefore the value is on the other side of this line – Fair enough.
But I don’t think they’ve reacted enough here, so I’m more than happy to take the Cowboys to win by more than a field goal. They’ve looked great since getting Dak back at the start of the season and have put up at least 36 points in the last 3 games they’ve played, and the Eagles and Panthers are meant to have a decent defense.
The Patriots don’t have the worst defense in the league and held Tom Brady’s Bucs to under 20 points in a weather affected game the other week. I just don’t see that happening against a Cowboys team who can run the ball as well as move it through the air.
Best spread; Dallas Cowboys -3 @ 4/5 on Bet365
Best total.
I’ve shown this season that I have no ability to pick a total, so I’m going back to a couple of weeks ago and giving it a miss this week.
I like the Cowboys v Pats u50, the Cards v Browns has dropped from 53 to 48 over the week with news of the weather, so we’re probably too late to get on that one. Over in KC v Wash – Neither team can defend. But I’m having nothing and doubling up on TD scorer this week.
Best TD Scorer
It’s not often you see plus money on Dalvin Cook, so I’ve got to go for him as my main TD scorer this week at 11/10 on Skybet. He was left out last week to give him an extra game to recover from the knock which he tried to play through and while the Vikings won, it would have been most emphatic had his replacement Alexander Mattison hadn’t fumbled late on a given the Lions a chance to win that game.
Cook is probably the best running back in the league now that Christian McCaffrey is headed to IR and I see no reason why he won’t run all over the Panthers here. Getting anything above evens is too good for me to ignore. Also like a little bet on 2 or more for him at 13/2.
There’s a few others at decent prices as well, both on 365 – D’Andre Swift is at 7/4 on there which is a stand-out price, while Ricky Seal-Jones is someone many might not have heard of, now playing tight end at Washington. He played nearly all snaps last week, ran a route on 88% of them and had 3 of their 4 Redzone targets. It should be a high-scoring game, Terry McLaurin has been questionable with an injury so you’re needing someone to move the ball, take the big man. There’s a 28/1 for 2 or more for him if you’re so inclined as well.
Best TDs – Dalvin Cook 11/10 (Skybet); Ricky Seals-Jones 10/3 (365)
Best Prop
I’ve not looked at many props this week, such is life, but there was one I found earlier in the week that I liked, and it involves my team, so somewhere I have more knowledge than most.
Joe Burrow has formed a brilliant connection with Ja’marr Chase with a ton of deep passes being connected including a 71 yard TD last week, so it’s whether you take the 26.5 for Chases’ longest reception, or 38.5 for Joe Burrows longest completion of the night, which will probably be to Chase.
I’m playing it, the safer way (I think) and taking Joe Burrow longest completion over 38.5 at 5/6 on William Hill and Bet365.
The Lions defense is beaten up, especially the secondary and Boyd, Higgins and Chase should be able to have their way throughout the game. All are capable of big receptions so that’s the way I’ve gone.
Best prop – Joe Burrow o38.5 longest completion.
Best of luck if you’re following, if you’re at the London game, read my separate preview and enjoy the spectacle.
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