Week 4 of the NFL season sees the first of the international series games as the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints come over for their game at Tottenham Hotspur stadium.
The Saints are starting with Andy Dalton meaning the QB matchup is a repeat of the 27-27 tie that Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton put on show a few years back when playing for the Bengals and Redskins respectively. The Saints are obviously without Jameis Winston with his fractured back, and have injury issues elsewhere with Michael Thomas out and Jarvis Landry officially questionable although expected to play. It’s not good for their offense and the deep shots to Chris Olave probably won’t happen with Dalton at QB this week. I’m expecting a lot of shorter passes to Alvin Kamara and like him o3.5 receptions at even money in most places.
The Vikings have been a bit of an enigma this year with Justin Jefferson smashing game 1 but quiet in both games since, you’d think they’ll be making a point of getting him going, Dalvin Cook plays despite dislocating his shoulder last week, apparently, that kind of thing happens to him, in fact they’re doing well health-wise and the point spread has moved off the 3 to Vikings -3.5 now.
I like the Vikings to win and cover and the total to go over the low 42 on offer.
Best Spread
Cleveland Browns -1.5 @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have actually been one of the more exciting teams in the league this year and notched up their first win against the Seahawks last week but their run defense is bottom 5 in the league despite going up against some fairly average rushing attacks and that’s going to hurt them this week as they face the best rushing attack in the league with Chubb and Hunt running all over them.
The Browns defense is pretty good as well so should limit Mariota and the young guys they’ve got pass-catching in Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
It won’t be pretty but the Browns should win by at least a field goal.
Best total
Commanders @ Cowboys u41.5
The unders have been dominating the totals so far this year sitting at 31-18 after Thursday night football, and I think this is another one in Dallas. The Commanders are terrible and while their defense is poor I’m not sure the Cowboys will be able to, or need to rack up the points as their defense should be on top led by DPOY favourites Micah Parsons who is showing his rookie year wasn’t a one-off.
Best TD prop
Khalil Herbert – 6/4, (Betfred) 13/10 (PP/Betfair)
In all honesty I’m fine with any price over evens for the man who should get 20 plus carries and looked great in their win last week after David Montgomery went down, Monty is out of this one so Herbert will be the man getting the ball from the start and against a Giants team who are struggling to put up point he should get a lot of touches, add to that the fact the Bears passing game is practically non-existent and you’ve got a cracking bet on him finding the end-zone.
I don’t mind Will Dissly for the Seahawks at a bigger price (11/2) against the Lions, he’s scored twice this year and Geno likes him near the endzone.
Best player prop
James Robinson o51.5 rushing yards
I’ll go to the Sky game for the prop this week as the Jags take on the Eagles, two of the more impressive teams so far this year. The Jags smashed the Chargers last week but will face a far tougher test here with the Eagles dominating on both sides of the ball in their previous games killing teams in the first half and then being able to ease off for the second half of their games.
But I like James Robinson to top his rushing yards total, he’s had at least 64 in each of their games so far and is the definite lead back with Etienne taking the backup role for them.
Have fun if you’re going to the London game, I actually think it will be more exciting than the line suggests. Or maybe I’m wish-casting on that…
#WHODEY.
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