Covid has hit the NFL. We all knew it would, it was inevitable that some players got infected. In fairness to the NFL I’m surprised it took until week 3 to have any issues. The Titans the main outbreak with more than 15 players or personnel now testing positive, their game against the Steelers is postponed until week 7 at the moment, and I think their week 5 game is at risk as well should cases there continue to rise.
Then last night we got news that New England quarterback Cam Newton tested positive, they’re currently testing other players, all have been negative so far but the game has been delayed, at the moment until Monday or Tuesday night, fingers crossed there’s no further positives and we’re good to go.
It was inevitable, the league has acted and adapted quickly to the situation and I’m sure it will going forward. There will be more cases and things will change week on week.
Spread bet
This is between a few for me, my shortlist came down to Seahawks -5.5 (long travel), Cowboys -3.5 (think they’ll outscore the Browns and take them out of their running game comfort zone) Cardinals -3 (Something I’m not seeing here) Colts -2.5 (Like this) But I think I’ll be taking the Bills to cover 3 points against the Raiders for my spread recommendation.
The Bills had an up and down game hosting the Rams last week, giving away a 28-3 lead before coming back to win in the final minute of the game, they covered the spread as well. They look good on offense, Josh Allen topping 300 yards in each game so far and Stefon Diggs has slotted in well for them. John Brown will be out but Gabriel Davis slotted in well in his spot last week. Zack Moss returns to bolster the RB corps too.
The Raiders are without their rookie WRs with Ruggs and Edwards both out, so they’ll probably use Renfrow and Waller a lot in the middle of the field with Dropsalot Agholor and Zay Jones on the outside. More likely a lot more Josh Jacobs running the ball.
Buffalo Bills -3 over the Las Vegas Raiders
Totals
Totals have bumped up a lot this week. I won’t be betting one in this column. A few notes. The Bills and Raiders have gone over the total in all 3 of their respective games this year, total is high at 53 though (opened at 49). The Falcons and Packers totals have gone over in every game too, theirs is at 56.5, it will probably still go over on Monday night.
The Ravens have scored every quarter so far this season yet their totals have gone under in every game. The Vikings have won the first quarter in every game yet lost them all.
Player prop
A couple here that I think are far too low, although the odds reflect them. Keenan Allen o4.5 receptions at 1.67 on Hills (1.62 elsewhere) looks a banker to me, he’s had 29 targets in two weeks since Justin Herbert took over at QB. He and Ekeler will probably top their receptions line. Myles Gaskin has the main role in the Dolphins backfield, he’s set at 3.5 receptions (Skybet best priced) after having 4,6 and 5 in their 3 games this year. I’m pretty sure Deandre Hopkins will be playing tonight, he’s had 14,8 and 10 receptions yet his line is set at 5.5 at 1.66 odds.
Best one for me? – Keenan Allen o4.5 receptions – 1.67 (WillHill)
Touchdown bet
Again a few on my shortlist here, I like the Skybet early treble, Cook, Kamara and Elliott at 11/2 looks good. All too short to take individually. A stupid longshot of Richard Rodgers at 40/1 for the Eagles, he’s the TE2 there with Goedert out injured, unlikely of course but a big price.
The Ravens got embarrassed on Monday night, they’ll be looking for a bounceback and a Washington team without Chase Young seems like the perfect spot for that. Mark Andrews was pretty terrible in that game, a lot of drops including in the endzone, but he’s priced over Evens for this one and I’ll happily take that.
Mark Andrews anytime – 2.10 (365)
Few others who made the shortlist, Zach Pascal and Mo Alie-Cox for the Colts, Kyler Murray at 7/4 for the Cardinals, Ronald Jones above evens for the Buccs with no Fournette playing. Kareem Hunt 9/4 for the Browns.
Summary
- Spread – Bills -3
- Player prop – Keenan Allen o4.5 receptions – 1.67 (Hills)
- TD Shorty – Mark Andrews – 2.10 (365)
Good Luck with whatever you’re all on tonight. Enjoy.
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