What a week the NFL had last week with huge comebacks all over the shop, of course not in the pick I made which may be the worst against the spread loss of the whole season as the Colts pooped all over themselves and scored nothing against the Jags… The under on the Steelers game landed fairly easily while the Bengals stuttered again and the Broncos are terribly coached, so I won’t be betting on anything involving their side of the ball until it’s proven the Nathaniel Hackett isn’t a fraud.
On to week 3 and there’s some good spreads on offer.
Best Spread
Ravens -2.5 @ Patriots.
Taking on Bill Belichick at home might be a stupid idea but I just don’t rate the Patriots this year, they don’t have much in the passing game and while Bill is great against old school attacks I don’t think he adjusts (yes I’m judging the greatest coach of all time) to modern offenses and Lamar Jackson is about as mobile and modern as they come. The Pats will try and run the game but it’s the Ravens secondary they should be attacking as it’s already littered with injury although should have Marcus Peters back.
Lamar Jackson would have been the talk of the league this week had his team not giving up a huge lead to Tua and the Dolphins he looked great on the ground and in the passing game with 119 and a TD on the ground and 318 and 3 through the air for a 142 passer rating. He should be able to take advantage of an average Patriots defense.
I think the Ravens win going away.
Best Total
Lions v Vikings 52.5
Who’d have thunk that my totals would be the winning bets so far, something I’m usually terrible on… let’s see how this week goes.
It might be one of the highest totals on the board, but it’s there for a reason, neither team can defend very well and both have explosive offenses. The Lions have scored over 30 in both games and allowed nearly 70 themselves while the Vikings games haven’t been quite as exciting they are very capable of putting up points in the early kick-offs where Kirk Cousins plays well. Justin Jefferson has 430+ yards in the last 3 matches against the Lions and should feast again here.
Should be a ton of points and hopefully the most fun game of the early starts (Bills v Dolphins over was the other choice)
Best TD Scorer
Jalen Hurts at plus money? Yeah go for it – Jalen Hurts anytime TD – 6/5 (William Hill) – He’s rushed for 3 TDs over their first two games, the lines on both sides of the ball for the Eagles have been dominating and the Eagles look as good as predicted this early in the season as they beat up on poor teams. He’s arguably the MVP through the first two games of the season. They’ll move the ball all day against this bum defense of the Commanders and should take another step towards the NFC East title on his back.
Best Player Prop
Tua Tagovailoa longest pass completion o36.5 yards
In what could be the highest scoring game of the weekend I’m a little surprised this line is as low as it is, he had a 42 yarder in week one against a solid enough Pats secondary and both Hill and Waddle took passes over this marker last week against the Ravens, so going up against a Bills team who are missing a whole host of players in their secondary I don’t see any reason why Hill and Waddle won’t be able to break away for a big score once more and bring this bet home without too much fuss.
Thanks for reading, hopefully we’re on the up this week after a rough start to the season. #WHODEY
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