A fun weekend to start the season last week as the underdogs went 12-4 against the spread on the week. I personally started 2-1-1 on tips given out on here, as Raheem Mostert was refunded by Skybet after going off injured early on in the 49ers game.
The Broncos easily covered the spread and TJ Hockenson was the main man in the passing game for the Lions as expected. The Bengals v Vikings game went to overtime to ruin the unders in that one, but it was the Bengals going for it on 4th down when leading by 14 points and allowing the Vikings back into it which really hurt us.
So, on to this week. There’s already some big games coming up with the Chiefs @ the Ravens the biggest of the weekend on Sunday night football.
Week 2 of the NFL Season
Best spread bet.
I was tempted to go back to the well with the Broncos and I do think they’ll cover the spread hosting the Jaguars at mile high. The Jaguars were dismal last week and face a far better defense this week than they did last so it should be one-way traffic in the Broncos favour.
But I’ll be going for the New England Patriots covering the spread in their game against the Jets.
Both teams lost last week but there was very differing circumstances behind those defeats. The Patriots out-gained the Dolphins by over 100 yards and had a crazy 13 minutes more possession than their opposition, while the Jets went to the other way and were stuffed by the Panthers although the score-line didn’t show it.
The Panthers got constant pressure on rookie QB Zach Wilson last week and the Patriots will be expecting to make it another painful afternoon for the kid in this one with a far better set of players and going up against an offensive line which has been further hurt with the injury to LT Mekhi Becton.
Offensively the Patriots were fine, they moved the ball well and it was a fumble late on by Damien Harris which hurt them. They have said they’ll lessen his workload as a result but he’s the best back they’ve got so I’m sure he won’t lose too many carries to Rhamondre Stevenson who I’d expect to come in as relief.
Oh, and add to that Belichick is something like 70% wins against rookie QBs in his time in NE. It might be a long night for the Jets.
Patriots -6 available everywhere.
Best totals bet.
Obviously the more fun bets are the overs on the totals and I might have to have a look there this week, my first thoughts were the under in Tampa v Atlanta. Mainly because I don’t see the Falcons scoring much more than 10 points, so you’d need 40+ from the Bucs to top the total in that game, but after last weeks debacle I think I might have to go for an over.
The main question for me now is whether I take the lower value on the Cowboys v Chargers game now that it’s risen to 55 from 51 at the start of the week.
I think I will, I can see this being a very high-scoring game if the Cowboys opening game is anything to go by. They were involved in a 60 point game in the opener and it looked like more of the same from last season for them on defense. They could barely stop the Bucs but Dak Prescott on the other side of the ball looked very good on his return from injury and supposedly nursing a sore shoulder. He threw 58 times and with an extra few days to recover should be fine in this one.
It wasn’t a high scoring opener for the Chargers but it didn’t have to be as they controlled things against Taylor Heinicke’s Washington team. Herbert was well protected and has the arm to punish a poor defense. He’ll be targeting the main three guys, Allen, Williams and Cook and I think this week should involve more Austin Ekeler after he played last week with a hamstring sprain and didn’t get as many touches as expected.
It should be a shoot-out and I’m betting it will be.
Chargers v Cowboys OVER 55 available everywhere
Best TD scorer
Well, frankly it’s Nick Chubb but at 8/13 I won’t be putting him up on here. He could have a couple and it might be worth looking at Kareem Hunt at far more favourable odds in a game they should dominate, although that’s now changed from 17/10 or so to 1/1 which I wouldn’t back.
There’s a trio in the Denver game I like at fairly good prices, Javonte Williams and Tim Patrick are both around 3/1 and Albert Okwuegbunam at 5/1 is tempting too as I expect the Broncos to score quite a few points in that game.
Now could be the time to get on Trey Sermon for the 49ers as they’ve said he’ll be playing this week and he was a higher draft pick than Elijah Mitchell who played well last week, Sermon is 10/3 to score.
Ok let’s go Kyler Murray.
He rushed in for a score last week and I think this could be one of the higher scoring games of the weekend. He should be able to move the ball with the talent they’ve given him in the passing game, but when it comes to the 5-zone I don’t see them giving James Conner or Chase Edmonds the chance to rush it in, it should be Murray wheeling out and finding the endzone.
Best price for Kyler Murray anytime – 11/8 at PP and WillHill
Best prop bet.
Props seem to be where the value is at so far this year. William Hill have had prices up very early in the week on the majority of games giving a very good chance to secure some value. As always there’s a few I like so it’s narrowing them down to one selection on here. Cole Kmet o3.5 receptions is one I’m on from earlier in the week he had a lot of targets against the Rams last week.
But I think I’ll look to the Miami game for my prop this week, it could be Mike Gesicki who after crapping out with 0 last week comes in this week lined at o2.5 reception at plus money which seems very generous to me, but I think I’ll go with the other MG for them and plump for Myles Gaskin o3.5 receptions at 5/4 on Skybet.
Gaskin caught 5 of 5 targets last week for 27 yards and I think the game plays out similarly this week with Tua having to make quick passes to runner from the backfield as the poor offensive line allows pressure on him again.
Myles Gaskin o3.5 receptions – 5/4 at Skybet
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