Here we are then, the final week of the 2022 regular season in the NFL and there’s a playoff spot on the line in each conference as we come up to the final games of the season.
The AFC is pretty much sorted – It looks like it will be Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Chargers, Ravens for the top 6 seeds, and then either Patriots, Dolphins or Steelers as the 7th seed – To me, it seems most likely it’s the Dolphins but who knows.
If the Patriots win they’re in, if they lose and the Dolphins beat the Jets they’re in, if both lose and the Steelers win then they make an improbable wildcard spot.
The NFC is a little more varied at the top, if I was a betting man… I’d say – Eagles, 49ers, Vikings, Bucs, Cowboys, Giants and then probably the Packers as the 7th seed going to San Fran again next week.
If the Packers win on Sunday Night Football they’re in regardless. If the Seahawks win and Packers lose the ‘Hawks get in. If the Seahawks lose then the winner of the Lions and Packers came makes it in.
I think that mostly makes sense.
There’s a lot of changes among rosters this week, so make sure you check out twitter for the latest news, or read my full previews over at TDTips.com for all the news I was able to acquire through the week. Incentives are key for prop betting in the final week as well, some players can earn a lot of cash for a couple of receptions in this final week and in general QBs and co-ordinators know this and get the ball to those guys.
On to this weeks tips then.
Best Spread
Colts -2.5 vs. Texans
This is immediately going against the “this team wants to win” mantra, but it does lean in to the “This team does ABSOLUTELY NOT want to win” mantra of the Texans – They currently hold the #1 pick in the draft which could get them their choice of QB or be used as trade-bait for a QB-needy team and is worth a whole hell of a lot to the franchise. They were plucky when they were 1.5 games ahead of the Bears in the race for the top pick, but as soon as they won their 2nd game of the season they regressed to “tanking” and while the Colts are possibly trying to lose as well to help their draft pick, I think the experience gained by a terrible Texans team this year will “win out” and they’ll lose this one.
It may well be 3-0 to the Colts, but that will cover the spread at least.
Best Total
Browns at Steelers UNDER 40
Arguably I could, and maybe should have taken the under in the game mentioned above, neither team wants to win, but we’ll mix it up a little and go for an important game in Pittsburgh.
It’s been 20 years since the Browns won in the regular season in this stadium, and while they have a playoff win a year or two ago, they are coming into this one looking to settle into Deshaun Watson at QB. It’s been rough for them since he came in, with just 1 of the 5 starts he’s had topping 40 points (a weird defensive scoring game against the Texans) with their defense stepping up to the plate to grind out some results.
The Steelers too have been defense heavy in their late push to the playoffs, with only 1 of their last 5 going over 40 points, strangely the exact same 24-17 scoreline exactly 5 games ago, the same as the Browns. Kenny Pickett has made some crazy last-minute drives to win games in recent weeks, he’ll face a tough defense here and will struggle to retain that form.
Mike Tomlin needs to avoid a loss to maintain his “no losing record” run, against all odds he may well do it in a low-scoring hard-fought AFC North battle.
Best TD Scorer
Stefon Diggs – 6/5 (Paddypower/Betfair)
What a week it’s been for the Bills after Damar Hamlin literally died on the field before the medics worked their magic and brought him back causing the league to abandon their game against the Bengals on Monday Night. Fortunately Hamlin has pulled through and has contacted his teammates on facetime this week to wish them the best as he watches from his bed in Cincinnati hospital.
So they’re UBER-MOTIVATED to grind the Patriots into the dust in their game this week and they made a point last week to say they wanted to get Stefon Diggs back involved in their offense after 3 games without a TD. He was targeted early in that Bengals game and getting plus money on him here seems generous despite going up against a very good Patriots defense which tends to take away an opponents main weapon. 7-92-1 was his stat-line in the first match between these two.
Also up for consideration was Cam Akers at 13/10 in places for the Rams, has run hard recently and the Rams will want to stop the Seahawks making the playoffs and Deandre Carter for the Chargers at 13/2 on Skybet – He needs 2 TDs to get an incentive and they have said that if the Ravens lose (they’re resting most starters vs the Bengals) that they’ll rest starters so that probably means Allen and Williams barely playing for them, so more for the backups and Carter has played quite a lot in place of those two this year.
Best player prop
Various incentive-based options…
Much like the TD bets it’s a tough pick this week so I’ll just list a few of the incentive based picks which have been doing the rounds on twitter this week.
- Kaliff Raymond needs 50 yards and a couple of receptions for bonuses, his line is 22.5 so I like the over for him.
- Amari Cooper needs 80 yards to have his highest receiving yards in a season and the coaches have said they want to get him there, his line is 68.5 so I don’t mind the over on him.
- Hayden Hurst needs 2 receptions for a bonus, he’ll get that, but his rec. line is 3.5, may well still hit that at 5/4.
- If they ever put up any receiving lines for Raheem Mostert then I like his overs with Skylar Thompson at QB for the Dolphins.
Thanks for reading through the season and the interactions on here, I will of course be back for all of the playoffs as the Bengals make another run to the Super Bowl! #WhoDey
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