Happy New Year to one and all, I hope you all had a good night and are looking forward to starting the year with another big day of sport, closing with the NFL from 6pm.
It’s the penultimate week in the NFL and there’s some big games on the slate on both sides of the NFL with divisional clashes across the landscape which could secure or ruin playoff hopes for teams.
The Dolphins at Patriots and Vikings at Packers are quite rightly the Sky games for the weekend, a win for the Dolphins practically secures the playoffs for them while the Vikings will look to put the nail in the coffin of the Packers playoff hopes and complete the sweep on them this season.
The Lions host the Bears knowing if they win the final two games they’re probably in, a win for the Giants essentially secures their spot in the NFC, the Panters at Buccs could decide the terrible NFC South, a Buccs win sorts it, a win for the Panthers leaves it in their hands as they host the Saints in the final week of the season.
And now the negative… there’s a TON of dead rubbers and some of the QB-play on show will likely be the worst in years, Jarrett Stidham, Nick Foles, Sam Darnold, Tyler Huntley… it’s not exactly elite.
Best Spread
Dolphins +3 @ Patriots
I know that we’ve got Teddy Bridgewater at QB for the Dolphins here, but he played a couple of games earlier in the year and looked fine, it turns out that most QBs are able to target Tyreek Hill and Jaylon Waddle a few yards down the field and let them do the work. In fact he gave Hill some of his most productive weeks with over 300 yards from 29 targets in the games he played a near full part in, so we know that link will be there. Waddle looked back to health last week and the return of Jeff Wilson to the backfield gives them a decent 1-2 with he and Mostert at running back.
The Patriots just aren’t very good. Mac Jones is a future league backup, Rhamondre Stevenson should play through an ankle injury and the pass-catching talent is even more depleted after players ran into each other on plays last week. Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne shouldn’t be a playoff WR duo. They are however very good on defense, Matt Judon and Josh Uche the best pass-rush duo in the league and the secondary is talented.
The Dolphins should go North and come out with the win so I love them getting the points.
Best Total
Rams vs. Chargers OVER 42
It’s a tough week to play a total so I’ll take a game where both teams are at home, zero travel and complete knowledge of the stadium they’re playing in.
It does also mean taking a team with Baker Mayfield at QB, but he did what was needed last week as Cam Akers notched up a hat-trick of scores behind an apparently solidified offensive line for the Rams.
The Chargers haven’t said anything about resting players now that they’ve secured the playoffs so expect at least a half of full-strength Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams play. That’s a great-looking offense which should put up points on any team in the league.
The league will want this to be fun in their home building so expecting DPI’s and them to allow offenses some leeway.
Best TD Scorer
AJ Dillon 6/5 (Skybet/Paddypower)
Quadzilla was lined at 5.5 rushing TDs for the season and after 1 in the first 12 games they played he’s now gone over that with 5 TDs in their last 4 games as the weather gets colder. It’s helped them on a winning streak which has them on the edge of an unlikely playoff berth in the NFC. They need the win to keep that push going and the Vikings defense is one of the worst in the league.
Best Player Prop
Chuba Hubbard o32.5 rushing yards
I wanted to concentrate a game with something on the line as you know the motivation of the teams, and there’s not many games with more on the line than this game, a win for the Panthers puts things in their own hands, a win for the Buccs secures a home playoff spot for the playoffs. The Panthers clearly want to keep the ball out of Sam Darnolds hands and ran for over 300 yards against the Lions last week, so you’ve got think they’ll try similar here.
D’onta Foreman is at 60.5 yards, so we’ll take Chuba Hubbard o32.5 instead who also had 100 yards last weekend.
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