With just two games left in the regular season the NFL Playoffs are still up in the air. The NFC is looking settled at the top with 3 of the 4 divisions settled and the Rams probably sealing the NFC West today, but in the AFC things are far from easy to work out.
The Chiefs are the only team guaranteed a post-season spot after winning the AFC West last weekend, the Titans have pretty much sealed the AFC south but need either 1 more win or the Colts to lose both, the AFC East is probably the Bills after they beat the Patriots last week, they should win out, while the North could be anyone’s, but to me seems likely to come down to Week 18 and the Browns v Bengals playing a “win and in” matchup.
NFL Week 17
The Chiefs v Bengals is a big game of the weekend and win for the Bengals takes the AFC North but a loss leaves it open for any of the other three teams. They spanked the Ravens last week but I feel they’ll come back down to earth against a ressurgent Chiefs team who will be looking to seal the #1 seed and a week off in week 19. I do think the Chiefs win and cover, unfortunately for me as a Bengals fan. Fortunately I can see the Browns messing up on Monday night and handing it to the Bengals anyway though.
Best spread
My pick for best spread this week though is the Eagles covering against Washington. The Eagles have been bet all week every week of this season by someone, so they have the faith of at least one heavy spending group of bettors and I think they’re the much better team coming into this one.
They should dominate on both the offensive and defensive lines and while they probably won’t be throwing the ball too much, the likes of Boston Scott, Jordan Howard and Kenneth Gainwell at RB should all get carries and put up yards.
Things aren’t as rosy for Washington though, they’re without Antonio Gibson so rookie Jaret Patterson gets the start at RB, he looked good in pre-season but I doubt he’s going to put up the lines that Gibson would have done. They are pretty much just Terry McLaurin on offense now and while he’s one of the best in the league he can’t do it himself.
Eagles -4.5
Best Total
Unders have been serving me well for a lot of the year and the Chiefs v Bengals seems a high line at over 50. The Chiefs have only allowed over 20 points to a team once in 8 weeks and could do that again this week although the Bengals offense has the capability of scoring on anyone with the talent they’ve got. So I’m giving that one a miss, it’s either 40 points or 70 and I’m not sure which.
I am going to take an over, in a game which means nothing. Lions v Seahawks. I’m not sure why but I think could be a sneaky high scoring game, both defenses are poor but the Lions welcome back D’Andre Swift for some reason and getting their best weapon back on offense they should be able to put up points on a horrible Seahawks team.
The Seahawks have the weapons in Wilson and Lockett (should include DK but he hates him) to put up points and Rashaad Penny should do well on the ground against a poor Lions defense.
Lions v Seahawks – OVER 41.5
Best TD scorer
I’ve got a whole list of these this week, narrowing it down to 1 or 2 has been a bit of a struggle for me. You can get 8/5 on Dalvin Cook because of the lack of starting QB for him. It’s tempting as he’ll probably have 30 carries and you rarely get plus money on him, but they could get shut out against a good Packers D.
Sony Michel at Evens (Betfred), or around there, 20/21 (365), 10/11 (Skybet) looks a good one against a battered Ravens team though, the secondary is their area of weakness, but they should be able to move the ball easily and get to the goal-line where Michel is the last remaining running back for the Rams, he should get the work there. Running backs are the best bets on a weekly basis, Penny at 6/4 and Darrel Williams at 11/8 are both tempting for the Seahawks and Chiefs respectively.
I’m going to leave it at one shorter price though.
Best Player prop
I said I’d take o7.5 receptions for Jaylen Waddle so I’ve got to take o6.5 at 1/1 on Skybet for him. The last month of the season he’s had 10-9-9-8 receptions, so without a calculator, averaging 9 receptions per game. Nice and simple.
Hope you all had a good Christmas and enjoyed New Year. The NFL season is nearly done but I’ll have posts throughout the playoffs all the way through to the Superbowl in February.
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