What a weekend of football we’ve got in prospect this week, only two teams on bye, and they’re probably two of the worst in the league, so we’re blessed with every game this week having at least one team who have a meaningful chance of making the post-season and in most cases both teams are fighting for their chance to make it to Vegas in February next year.
The early game has Rams @ Ravens on Sky which could be fun but Rams QB Matthew Stafford has a terrible record outside, one that’s even worse in the rain and they’re nowhere near fully fit facing the best team in the AFC coming off their bye week, that could become a bit of a massacre. The Colts and Bengals is interesting with backup QBs on both sides while the Lions at Bears is closer on the spread than I would have thought it would be.
Best Spread – Vikings -3 @ Raiders
There’s a couple of spread on the slate this week which look like a trap and by that they aren’t anywhere near where I think they should be and this is one of them.
I think the Vikings are quite considerably better than the Raiders, I think there will be close to a majority of Vikings fans inside the Allegiant and the Vikings should win fairly comfortably coming off of their bye week.
Josh Dobbs took over on short notice and notched up some wins before a poor game a couple of weeks ago but he’ll have learnt the playbook a lot more during their break and the addition of the best WR in the league to the passing game will surely help them out a lot as Justin Jefferson comes back to play alongside Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson who’ve been doing most of the lifting recently. Ty Chandler looks like he’s added a bit to the run game and they’ve been fine defensively as well.
The Raiders are lucky to be here at 5-5, mainly due to Josh Jacobs having another big season. They have been finding Devante Adams a lot more since Josh McDaniels was sacked and Aiden O’Connell came him but aside from him and Jakobi Meyers apparently being a red-zone threat they aren’t very good.
Best Total – Bengals v Colts o44
Full transparency here, I was going to go for Colts team total o20.5 points, but I think the Bengals win this game still, so therefore I think they score at least 22, that takes it to 43 points, so I changed my mind and went for the over on the game as a whole on the off-chance there’s some defensive scores which skew things one way of another.
The Bengals offense looked great against the Jags on Monday but they still allowed 31 points on the other side of the ball and the Colts have shown they are capable of moving the ball and putting up points with Minshew at QB, add to that his love or throwing picks and there could be points for both teams when the Colts are driving.
Best TD Scorer – Courtland Sutton – 15/8 (Bet365/William Hill)
I am a little shocked that Sutton is still around 2/1 week in, week out. Sure he only had 2 receptions last week but one was a TD making it 9 TDs in 12 games this year, one in each of those, so he’s scoring in 3/4 of their games this season. They face a Chargers team which seems incapable of doing anything this year so I’ll take the big man scoring at these odds.
Mike Evans was the other potential, he’s 7/5 and above depending where you look. Similar story to Sutton really, he’s been scoring a lot this season and remains at decent odds. David Montgomery at 20/21 is a great price as well with 10 TDs this season.
Best Player Prop – Tanner Hudson o2.5 receptions – 4/5 (Bet365)
The Steelers let me down last week, they were AWFUL, Freirmuth had the targets but couldn’t haul them in for yards against the Cardinals.
This week I’ve got a handful from the Bengals game, Tanner Hudson is my pick here though at 4/5 for o2.5 receptions at Bet365 and 8/11 or so at SkyBet. He’s had 4 or more in their last 5 games, two of them with the new JB at QB so I’ll take him to get at least three in this one.
I liked Alec Pierce o16.5 on longest reception and Chase o64.5 rec. yards in that game too, but Hudson seems the easiest of the three.
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