Week 13 of the NFL season sees some brilliant matchups, which, luckily for us take place after England beat Senegal in the World Cup knockout round, hopefully without the need for extra time or penalties… that would really scupper my viewing for the night with the Chiefs at Bengals at 925 and Dolphins at 49ers at 905pm in the UK.
Running a little late due to lying-in so I’ll get right to it this week with my best spread on the slate.
Best Spread
Seahawks -6.5 @ Rams
I don’t see why this line has dropped under 7 points. The Seahawks are still looking to get into the post-season while the Rams are hanging up their boots for the season, surely the road team can win by at least a touchdown here.
Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should continue their good form this year against a secondary who’s main star has been phoning it in for most of the season and while Kenneth Walkers numbers in the run game have dipped recently he’s still finding the endzone, if they can put up 20 points they should cover the spread.
The Rams have Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson all on IR, so John Wolford (good surname) starts at QB for them. The passing game probably goes through Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee? While the run-game has been terrible all year with one of the worst offensive lines in the league and yet another combination of players in that position this week starting.
Won’t be pretty but should be Seahawks.
Best Total
Chargers @ Raiders o49.5
I’m a little surprised to see the Chargers as underdogs in this one and without Mike Williams again maybe they struggle to get to 30 points, but this is the worst passing defense in the league they’re up against with one of the best young QBs in the league. Keenan Allen is back from injury and looking good while Josh Palmer and Deandre Carter have filled in well when injuries have hit. Gerald Everett should have a good game and Austin Ekeler is one of the best dual-threats in the league,
Devante Adams and Derek Carr have looked as good as advertised and despite a calf injury Josh Jacobs should have a big game against a terrible rushing defense after his 300+ yards and 3 TDs last week.
Should be a high-scoring affair and I’m happy to see it under 50 points.
Best TD Scorer
Travis Etienne 4/5 (Bet365/Skybet)
Top pick which isn’t the heavily odds-on Nick Chubb (11/4 for 2 or more seems fine) is 4/5 on Travis Etienne who missed a lot of last week against the Ravens, but is a full go here against one of the worst defenses in the league, could be a high-scoring game and I fancy the main back for the Jags to find the endzone.
17/2 for Jody Fortson against the Bengals seems generous, they’ve done well against the usual studs on the Chiefs defense, but Fortson has snuck in for a couple of scores this year already and at 7/1 and above at the main books I’ll have a nibble.
Best Player Prop
Derrick Henry o14.5 rec. yards
Henry has had a bit of a down-turn from his usual dominance on the ground in recent weeks but he’s topped this line through the air in each of their last three and goes up against a very good Eagles defense which they’ll have to mix things up against. He had a 69-yard spurt last week before fumbling on the one and once he’s going he’s tought to stop. It’s a fairly low line which I like.
Not such a low line, but one I’ll probably have, o95 rush yards for Nick Chubb, all eyes will be on Watson in his return from sexual assault, but Chubb should run all over a terrible Texans run D.
Peace out. Enjoy the footy then enjoy the Chiefs at Bengals, should be a stunner.
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