After a fantastic Thursday Thanksgiving slate of games Week 12 of the NFL arrives with the remaining 26 teams taking the field before bye weeks return next week so we’ve got a lot to choose from this Sunday.
The early Sky game sees a re-match of the divisional round game where the Bengals knocked off the #1 seed last season while the late game has the electric 49ers hosting the New Orleans Saints. The 49ers are probably my favourite neutral team to watch the moment so could be one worth staying up for.
I didn’t manage to get a post on here for Thursday but if you follow along with my blog TDTips.com you may have got ona 23/1 treble which allowed me to punt on the World Cup all weekend for free, which was nice.
On to tonight then, and my favourite bets for the weekend.
Best Spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 @ Cleveland Browns
There’s a couple on my radar that I just can’t work out this week, this one, the Ravens at Jacksonville and the Chargers vs. the Cardinals are all lines that I like, but when there’s a line which seems to stand out like those do it worries me… what am I missing here?
This is Tom Brady against Jacoby Brissett and while Brissett looked good against the Bills the last time we saw him the Browns offense just isn’t up to the task here. They are run-heavy for the most part, and fair play to Donovan Peoples-Jones who has 50+ yards in 7 consecutive games now, and Amari Cooper, just don’t see them having the fire power to keep up with a revived Tampa offense.
It looks like Leonard Fournette will be missing this one but they were moving away from him to give rookie Rachaad White more of the ball anyway and this just speeds up that process. They have Chris Godwin and Mike Evans at the healthiest they’ve been all year coming off their bye week and the defense seems to be improving as well.
I think they win by 7, so cover the spread and finish off Cleveland before we all hate the Browns for starting Deshaun Watson next week.
Best Total
Falcons at Commanders OVER 40.5
For some reason I think this could be a surprisingly entertaining matchup. Neither defense is ranked very well, at all, and there’s some explosive talent on both sides of the ball, namely Cordarrelle Patterson, Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel so there could be points coming from all over the field including kick-off and punt returns.
Taylor Heinicke has shown he’s going to put the ball up for grabs with McLaurin and there’s the chance of defensive scores as well.
It’s a weirdly low total so I’m taking the over on it.
Best TD Scorer
Latavius Murray 13/8 vs Panthers
There are a few likely scorers this week, Jeff Wilson for the Dolphins could have 2 or 3 against a terrible Texans defense and with Raheem Mostert missing out, but 7/2 for 2 or more isn’t something I want to put up on here. White is odds-on at the mainline books for the Buccaneers with Fournette probably out, Perine for the Bengals may be popular with Mixon out after he scored thrice last week, but the Titans run defense is very good so be wary if you’re backing him at short prices.
There’s another spot where there’s only really one guy left in the running game as well and that’s the Denver Broncos who released Melvin Gordon in the week leaving Latavius Murray to get the bulk of the carries there. He was already getting most of the goal-line work for Denver and will now surely get even more, so finding him at decent plus-money is something I’m fine putting up on here.
Best Player Prop
Michael Carter o2.5 receptions.
There’s a new QB for the Jets, their 3rd of the season with Zach Wilson finally benched and Mike White getting the start. White played a handful of games last season and the dump-off to his running back was one of his more frequently used plays. Carter is the main back for the team and the only slight worry I have on this one is James Robinson getting more settled into the offense potentially taking away 3rd down snaps from him, but the history of White and Carter and a relatively low line (I was expecting 3.5) has convinced me to take this as my favourite prop this week.
o2.5 receptions – 4/5 Bet365
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