THIS week sees the most important weekend of the NFL off-season, the NFL Draft. Taking place in Nashville, Tennessee. 254 young lads will have their lives changed forever as they are picked to join NFL teams for the forthcoming years.
It all kicks off on Thursday night at around 1am in the UK and should take about 3 hours for the first round (the 2nd and 3rd round on Friday, the remainder on Saturday), a bit of a challenge to get up for, it’s hardly non-stop action, but it’s entertaining nonetheless for NFL degenerates wanting to see who’s jersey they’ll be buying next.
If you’re new to it, the NFL is designed for parity and the draft allows the worst team from the year before to get the first pick of players coming out of college. So the Arizona Cardinals currently hold the first pick to get the player they want, the Superbowl winning New England Patriots the 32nd pick in each round (unless they trade)
This will concentrate mainly on the first round as it’s where the betting markets are: First up is the First overall pick. It’s largely thought that the Arizona Cardinals will take Kyler Murray with the first pick of the draft, and as such the odds are restrictive, a best of 1/4 at Skybet (Although that’s considerably bigger than earlier in the week) – Not worth a bet at the odds. Meaning that the value is surely on Nick Bosa (9/2) or Quinnen Williams (14/1) both on 365. For me, there’s no bet there.
There is, however a bet on the draft position of Quinnen Williams, you can currently get Evens on him going in the top 3 over at Unibet. His stock has been rising after the last week and most mocks seem to have him going at #3 now so I’m happy to take that. With regards to Quinnen Williams, a big bet is probably required on Quinnen Williams to be picked before Ed Oliver at 1/2 on Skybet.
I think there’s also value in the 1st Wide Receiver market. D.K. Metcalf took over the combine with a ridiculous 4.33 40yard dash at the combine, a crazy speed for someone of his weight, but his agility drills were frankly shocking and that seems to be more important to most NFL teams, he was however massively hyped by twitter and the media in general. I have read that scouts believe it’s all a media creation though.
So if you’re looking at the 1st WR markets then Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is worth a look at 3/1 on Coral (He was 7/1 a week or two ago) – He’s very lightweight, and didn’t attend the combine due to an injury, but he’s reporting well and fantasy football guru Evan Silva described him as a “Transcendent player” recently.
A very longshot for a team looking for a bigger body though is Parris Campbell, someone who’s opinion I pay attention to on twitter thinks he and Brown could be the two 1st round WRs and you can get 50/1 on him at Paddy Power. In fact you can get DK Metcalf to be drafted AFTER pick 21 on Skybet at 11/10 which seems good to me.
1st RB seems locked on Josh Jacobs, 1/5 for that, however you can get the LA Raiders at 6/4 to pick him on Ladbrokes at the moment and I have taken that one. I do like the 2nd RB to be Miles Sanders though, he took over the position from Saquon Barkley at Notre Dame and had a good season, at 13/5 (Paddy Power) I like the odds.
1st Tight End seems locked to be TJ Hockenson, again restrictive odds at 4/11, but you can get him to be drafted by the Green Bay Packers (pick 12) at 2/1 on Betway.
If you want an odds-on shot then total defensive players drafted in 1st round to be OVER 16.5 is available at 8/13 on Bet365. This draft is heavily in favour of the defensive players so I would be surprised if this one doesn’t come in.
Recommended Bets
- Quinnen Williams to be drafted before Ed Oliver – 1/2 (Skybet) – 10 points
- Total defensive players in the first round – o16.5 – 8/13 (365) – 5 points
- 2nd RB drafted – Miles Sanders – 13/5 (Paddy Power) – 3 points
- Parris Campbell 1st WR drafted – 50/1 (Paddy Power) – 1 point.
Good luck if you follow along. Plan is to have a look at the win totals/division winners bets in the coming month and get a view posted up about them as well.
Adam, @TouchdownTips
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