A cracking weekend of football last week from start to finish. The Bills really should have won but fell apart in the second half. Deshaun Watson being a natural born winner won the game for them. The Patriots lost at home in the playoffs. It shouldn’t have been a shock given the way the teams had played all season but they have always found a way through in the past so I avoided it. Frustrating.
The early Sunday game was brilliant as well, another overtime game won by Kirk Clutch-sins, the man who no-one thought could win in primetime led his team down the field on the first play of overtime to lob a pass to his giant in the corner of the endzone. Was it PI? Probably, but who cares, it was against the Saints. I’m sure we won’t hear about it for the next month or three. The late game on Sunday was ruined by an un-needed cheap shot by Clowney which took Wentz out with a concussion. The Eagles did well with McCown in replacement despite him tearing the hamstring off his bone but couldn’t score when they got to the redzone.
Divisional Weekend is here!
So we’re on to the best weekend, 4 games, the top 2 in each conference being brought in to play the teams who earned a spot in the final 8 last week.
Minnesota Vikings +7 @ San Francisco 49ers – Total: 44.5
The Vikings won as big dogs last week in a game I thought they had no chance, so I’m not going to be backing the 49ers on the spread in this one despite the fact once again I think the Vikings will lose comfortably. I can’t imagine the Vikings putting together such a good game-plan like last week, and they’re up against a QB this week who has the ability to throw downfield unlike Mr. Brees last week.
Very few thought Kirk Cousins would be able to win a primetime game on the road, but it was a 1pm kick off for him so wasn’t a weird build up to the game and he came through clutch at the end of the game.
The Vikes were great on both sides of the ball last week, offensively it looked like Dalvin Cook was back to full health, when he’s fit he’s one of the best backs in the league especially in the heavy play action passing scheme that the Vikings use. He finished with 130 yards and 2 TDs last week against a very good run defense.
The passing game worked well although more than half of the passing yards went to Adam Thielen who had stitches in his foot in the week, he will be playing but there’s always a risk the stitches open up. If he does go down it will probably mean more for Olabisi Johnson and the tight ends. Kyle Rudolph won the game for the Vikings last week and his size makes him a decent mis-match for them. Stefon Diggs didn’t get too much in the passing game and made sure everyone knew by throwing a paddy on the sideline, that happened earlier in the season as well and he got more targets the following week. However it’s likely he’s going to be opposite Richard Sherman this week who is on the 2nd team all-pro roster this year so things won’t be easy against him.
Defensively they were great last week with Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffin getting pressure throughout the game, especially against the guards on the inside of the line.
The 49ers are pretty much fully healthy, they only have Dee Ford on the injury report this week and even he could play in this one (officially questionable) so their defense should be back to first half of the season levels where they were brilliant. They’ll get pressure on Cousins all day.
Offensively they’ve got a QB who wins games. I’m still struggling to give Jimmy Garoppolo credit for the games they win but he ranks 12th in yards and QBR, 5th in TDs thrown this year so it’s not like the team have done it despite him, but I’m just not sure he can win a game by himself. He’s got one of the best offensive coaches in the league so players are constantly schemed open meaning he doesn’t need to make spectacular plays.
The run game seems to have settled on Raheem Mostert who’s scored 7 times in the last 6 games of the season. He doesn’t get a whole lot of carries but he does a lot with them. Matt Breida will mix in, and Tevin Coleman might get the odd touch as well, but it seems to be all on Mostert now.
The passing game runs mainly through George Kittle who is arguably the best tight end in the league now and is the most Gronk-like out there. The Vikings have been great against tight ends but I’ve got to count Kittle as matchup-proof. He leads the team in targets and redzone targets this year. I won’t back him to score, but wouldn’t argue against going over his yards. The wide receiver group seems to be led by Deebo Samuel now, he’s been good towards the end of the year, Emmanuel Sanders was a good pickup halfway through the season to help them there, and Kendrick Bourne does well in the redzone as well, 5 receptions from 6 targets and 5 TDs in the final 20 yards for him this season (4/1 anytime) and he usually plays in the slot, the Vikings slot receiver is out for this one.
I think the 49ers win, they should cover the spread but I’m not backing that. I would lean to the over as the 49ers have put up some big points at home this year.
Bets;
Tennessee Titans +10 @ Baltimore Ravens: Total – 47.5
The Titans beat the Pats in Foxborough last week with a simple gameplan. Give the ball to Derrick Henry. Keep the ball away from the opposition and they can’t do anything. I think that will be their plan this week and I’m fairly sure that won’t work against a team who can actually score points on offense.
They won with a QB throwing for 8 completions last week for 72 yards. It was quite a sight. Ryan Tannehill is definitely capable of doing more though, he was a top 3 QB in the league once he took over under center for them early in the season. He’ll have to do more in this one which won’t be easy against a good Ravens defense.
His connection with AJ Brown was a key thing for the offense as whole he is incredibly hard to stop once he gets going and finished the season on fire, there’s even a small chance he sneaks the offensive rookie of the year title away from Murray/Jacobs. He went over 100 yards in 3 of the final 6 games of the season and scored 7 times in those games including one from a long rushing attempt. The Ravens have been good vs WR1 and not so great against WR2, so in theory Corey Davis, Tajae Sharpe should have decent games, I have no idea which one. The tight ends are used a lot in the Titans offense, I thought Jonnu Smith would do well last week but it was Firkser with the TD and even Mycole Pruitt gets involved occasionally as well.
They have the leagues leading rusher in Derrick Henry who topped 1,500 yards on the ground and finished with 16 rush TDs this year as well. He won the game for them last week with 34 carries for 184 yards and a TD, there’s strong evidence to suggest multiple 30+ touch games are bad for a player but Henry isn’t an ordinary human being.
The Ravens are led by the regular season MVP Lamar Jackson who has been phenomenal this year leading the league in Total TDs and QBR and of course in rushing yards, in fact he finished 6th in rush yards this year. He’s been practically unstoppable this year through the air and on the ground. There’s nothing I can say that’s not been said about him this year to be honest, and the only team to stop him last year in the playoffs were a team who’d played them a couple of weeks previous. The Titans haven’t faced Lamar Jackson at all.
The run game goes through Jackson and Ingram, the latter having 10 rush TDs, 5 receiving TDs this season for the Ravens. He is officially questionable with a calf strain which kept him out of the last game of the season. Ian Rapoport thinks he’ll be playing, but a Calf strain is a rough one to get over. If he doesn’t go then Gus Edwards and Justice Hill can fill in well for him, Gus on the ground and Hill as a 3rd down back.
The passing game is tough to call, it’s mainly through the tight ends, specifically Mark Andrews who’s been great for him, he’s officially questionable as well with an ankle but I’d be shocked if he misses out, Hayden Hurst and even Nick Boyle do well in this offense as well though. The wide receiver corps is tough to get right, the big play threat is Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown who’s quicker than everyone in the league but constantly hampered with injuries. Outside of him you’re looking at Willie Snead, Seth Roberts and Chris Moore, none of whom are reliable in the slightest.
Their defense has been good since Marcus Peters signed and Jimmy Smith returned from injury, they blitz a lot and cause poor passes from quarterbacks which the secondary can take advantage of.
The Ravens should win this one, and I think they’ll probably cover although I don’t like taking double-digit favourites. The total is tough to call so I’ll steer clear of it.
You can still get 4/1 on Justice Hill. If you’re awake to find out that Mark Ingram is out then get on him asap. I think there’s a good chance that one of Jonnu Smith 5s, Firkser 10s or Pruitt 20s score but I’m not sure which. All fairly well priced.
No bets from me unless Ingram is out, then I’m on Justice Hill.
Good Luck on these, I’ll get an NFC post sorted tonight ready for tomorrow morning.
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