Not the best of night for the betting selections posted yesterday as the defenses were well on top in both games. It’s safe to say I was expecting more than 3 TDs to be scored by the offenses on Saturday, low scoring games are not good for prop betting and Ryan Tannehill only rushed for 12 yards on the one selection I put in there.
BUT for me personally and the fanbase I’m part of, the BENGALS MADE THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game. Not a bad achievement given they were 80/1 to make the Super Bowl in pre-season. It was a painful watch but their rookie kicker kept his calm and got the job done.
In the frozen tundra of Wisconsin there was another game-winning field goal, the first time in post-season history the divisional round has had two game-winning kicks on the same night as the 49ers defense blocked a punt for a TD on their way to a win over the 1 seeded Packers.
So both #1 seeds are out of the playoffs immediately and the whole thing is suddenly more open than it was before. I had the Packers v Chiefs as my finale, so that’s dead in the water as well.
NFL Divisional round; Sunday
LA Rams +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 48
Were the Rams any good on Monday night, or was it just that the Cardinals were utterly atrocious? A little bit of both? Were the Buccaneers any good in their win over the Eagles? Or was it the ineptitude of that team that allowed them an easy win? It’s tough to figure out for both of these teams as they come into this one.
It’s a tough spot for the Rams going across the country on a shorter week, but they took the second half of their last game off last week, so shouldn’t be too bad in terms of tiredness.
Aaron Donald and the pass rush could be the key here especially if Tristan Wirfs can’t go, he and center Ryan Jensen look like they’re going to be game-time decisions and if they’re out, or hampered at all it could be a long night for Tom Brady, who was under a lot of pressure from the Eagles with those out of the front 5 last week. Of course we all know that Brady, and only Tom Brady gets affected by pressure up the middle. No other QB suffers from that affliction, nope, none at all… It’s tough for any QB to complete passes with a giant running at them as Joe Burrow proved last night.
The key on offense for the Rams is keeping it clean, and if they can get the run game going then they will likely try and run something similar to last week where Cam Akers looked really good, and Sony Michel plugged along as well. The run-heavy game plan meant that they could limit the amount of attempts for Matthew Stafford and therefore reduce the chance of him throwing interceptions as he has done a lot in the second half of the season. We do know that running against the Bucs is very tough, especially up the middle, so Akers getting to the edge would probably be their best route.
They largely used Cooper Kupp largely as a diversion last week, and targeted Beckham oin the mid-range as well as Van Jefferson with the odd deep-shot. In the regular season matchup between these two which the Rams won they had some huge chunk plays to Desean Jackson and Van Jefferson as they took on the beaten up Bucs secondary. That area of the field is better for the home team tonight but I would imagine they’ll still test it out.
Tyler Higbee has been increasingly involved in the passing game and he lined up alongside Kupp last week running similar routes, one of them short, the other a little deeper which worked well, it will put him in the lines of the linebackers who are speedy for the Bucs, but he’s proven himself reliable and has at least 5 targets in each of their last 8 games.
Defensively you would like to think that Jalen Ramsey will be able to stop Mike Evans when he’s on the same side as him, but he doesn’t tend to travel with opposing receivers so there will still be times when Evans finds himself with softer coverage. They are still lacking at safety but that area wasn’t tested by the Cardinals last week, expect Brady to try a few deep shots down the middle to try and take advantage of that area.
The Bucs are looking to make consecutive Super Bowls, and are healthier than they have been for a lot of the year, but the players potentially missing on the offensive line could cause them issues in both the passing and run game, but the return of Leonard Fournette “playoff Lenny” to the backfield should be a big boost for them. The other running backs both scored last week, Vaughn and Bernard, but Fournette is more trusted and a better runner at this moment in time.
If Wirfs is out then they may need Gronk blocking more which will hurt them on the offense, he’s been electric in recent weeks and with Mike Evans probably getting Jalen Ramsey a lot they’ll need other guys to step up. Tyler Johnson had three targets, Scotty Miller a couple, and Gio Bernard had a load out of the backfield as well, so they have players to aim for still, but Brady trusts the guys he trusts, and that’s Gronk and Evans. I would imagine they’ll still get the bulk of the targets, and then Fournette or Gio out of the backfield depending on the health of the returning Lenny.
The Bucs defense is looking a lot healthier than it was when these two originally met and they were shutting out the Eagles last week before allowing a couple of garbage time scores to them. Devin White is showing as one of the best LBs in the league while Vita Vea is a man-mountain in the middle of the field.
It should be a great game, I think the defense may be on top though. I like the Unders and the Rams to win outright here. TD: Akers 13/8 (William Hill), Longshot Scotty Miller – 15/2 (Unibet) and my favourite prop on this one for what it’s worth… I was looking for Bernard/Fournette receptions and going to make a decision on those, but they’re not available. Van Jefferson longest receptions o18.5 yards.
Buffalo Bills +1.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs: 54
A re-match of last years AFC Championship game which the Chiefs won. The Bills gained a little revenge at Arrowhead in the regular season, Josh Allen’s rushing did a lot of the damage as it did to the Pats last week, and he had his highest QBR of the season in that one with 3 passing TDs and a rushing score.
It was a record-breaking game for the Bills as they scored a TD on all 7 of their drives before kneeling to end the game, becoming the first team to ever have achieved that feat.
Sure, they looked great last week, but it’s another I’m just not sure what to take out of it. The Pats just didn’t turn up, didn’t adjust and couldn’t do a thing to stop the onslaught. They are unable to counter-attack, the Chiefs don’t have that issue. They can score 5 TDs in 10:30 mins of game time and put games out of reach if they are forced into that position.
Josh Allen was outstanding in the cold last week, as he was in the regular-season game between these two and he’s proven this year to be one of the best in the league, he’s got a cannon for an arm and his rushing ability is very difficult to stop. I would expect both of those things to be highlighted in what should be a high-scoring affair at Arrowhead.
Devin Singletary carried on his good form from the end of the regular season to score a couple of times as part of his 16 carries last week. They do have Moss and Breida if they wish to mix things up, but the involvement of Isaiah McKenzie in both running game and passing game was an interesting little wrinkle they focused on last week, he could be a bit of a wild card in this one.
The passing game has many options, usually topped by Stefon Diggs who finished the regular season 8th in yards, 6th in TDs. He didn’t do a whole lot last week but such was the domination of his team he wasn’t required to. They do have weapons in the passing game though, Gabriel Davis finished the season strong, Emmanuel Sanders mixes in and McKenzie had some big chunk plays as well, not to forget Devin Singletary catching balls out of the backfield.
Dawson Knox added a couple of scores to his 9 regular-season games. It was Knox who did the damage in week 5 but the Chiefs defense started terribly this season so it’s tough to know what to take out of that match between these two. He led the team in receptions and yards last week and I would expect him to have a big game here as well.
The Bills defense ranks as the best in the league this season, I’m not sure they’ve faced much opposition but they did a good job of slowing the Chiefs in that regular-season matchup, but, once again that was a very different Chiefs team to the one they’ll be facing this week.
When good GMs and coaches build rosters they build them to take care of their main rivals, I think there’s a good chance the Bills now consider the Chiefs their main rivals are have built to be able to deal with whatever is thrown at them from this opposition. They should be well set.
The Chiefs conceded first last week before Mahomes kicked into gear, scoring 5 TDs in under 12 minutes of game-time to put their game out of sight. It’s been a weird season for the most talented QB in the league, starting with 8 interceptions in their first 8 games of the season, but things turned around and he’s only thrown 3 since then. All along they were one of the better offenses in the league, just littered with mistakes as well. He still finished with the 4th most yards and TDs thrown.
Something they have noticeably done over the second half of the season is spread the ball around more. Tyreek Hill scored last week but that was only his 3rd TD in their last 8 games. He has only hit 100 yards once in that time as well, although has been carrying knocks. He is obviously capable of turning a game on it’s head and not having to rely on one player is definitely useful. They have been using Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle more recently, Pringle popped up with a couple of scores last weekend.
It was Travis Kelces’ biggest game of the season with over 100 yards, a receiving TD and a passing TD for him, making it 4 games in a row with at least one score, he did find the endzone in that regular-season game against the Bills, and does tend to step up in a big spot.
They have Clyde Edwards-Helaire officially available for this one, but Jerrick McKinnon looked better than any back they’ve had this year last week. It’s impossible to tell whether that was purely down to the lack of opposition or not, but he was explosive which is something you’ve not been able to say about their other RBs for a lot of the year. He was involved in the passing game as well. It will be interesting to see what they do now that they’ve got more options in the running back room.
The Chiefs defense has looked better on paper, but they’ve had a ridiculously easy second-half of the season – conceding 17 to the Giants, Jordan Love Packers scored 7, they played the Raiders twice, conceded just 9 to the Cowboys (a good performance), 9 to the Broncos and 10 to an utterly inept Steelers offense. The only two functional offenses they’ve played the Chargers and Bengals scored 28 and 31 against them. I don’t think it’s as good as people are making out, so this will be a proper test for them.
I have no idea who wins here, everything suggests it should be the Bills and as they’re getting points that is the side I would be taking should I be betting the spread, I don’t see how there’s not a ton of points in this one (although I thought that with the Bengals last night…) so I’d be taking the over on that despite it being a high line.
Best TD scorer(s); Kelce 11/10 (vBet), Knox 21/10 (Bet365); Favourite Prop; Dawson Knox o40.5, Josh Allen o50.5 rushing yards
If you can wait a few weeks there’s probably better value in taking whoever you think wins this game to win the Superbowl, both are 4/1 for that. They are a TD fave against the Bengals next week and will be favourites for the big game should they get there.
You can actually find lines for next weekend already – The 49ers are going to be +3 against either opposition, while the Bengals are at +6.5 against either team. As a fan of the Bengals I would prefer the Chiefs, having already beaten them in the regular-season. I would imagine the 49ers would like to face the Rams having beaten them the last 6 times the teams have met.
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