No division boasts as many intriguing on and off-field storylines heading into the new NFL season as the AFC South and with so much to talk about, let’s waste no time digging in.
The Tennessee Titans are the defending division champions having edged out the Indianapolis Colts thanks to their superior divisional record, both teams having gone 11-5 in the regular season. The Colts and Titans finished well clear of the Houston Texans (4-12) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15).
The Titans are the 5/6 favourites to retain their crown having improved what was already a top-notch offence, while the Colts have drifted to 9/5 after losing their starting quarterback Carson Wentz to injury.
The 11/2 Jags represent the wildcard in the AFC South, while the 28/1 Texans are likely to finish bottom of the standings.
Titans Standing Tall
The Titans claimed the AFC South pennant for the first time since 2008 last year, posting a double-digit winning season for the first time in Mike Vrabel’s tenure as head coach. The Baltimore Ravens would ultimately end Tennessee’s Super Bowl dreams in the wildcard round of the playoffs but they can expect to be back in the postseason.
Last year the Titans leaned heavily on quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry to get the job done and the duo are set to lead what, on paper, is a top-10 offence again. Tannehill’s remarkable career revival took another unlikely step forward as he accounted for 40 touchdowns and 3,819 passing yards.
"I am back to my normal self, if not a little bit better." @TaylorLewan77 Back, Better
» https://t.co/wMNTKEtiCM
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) August 4, 2021
The 32-year-old’s efforts on offence put him in the MVP conversation, alongside rushing king Henry. For the second straight year, Henry recorded over 300 touches (378) as he became only the eighth player to top 2,000 rushing yards in a season.
Having used Henry heavily the last two years, they might be able to spread the workload around in 2021 after making a blockbuster trade for star wide receiver Julio Jones. He might be 32 now but Jones is still one of the premier wideouts in the NFL and takes what was already a talented offence to the next level. The wide receiving tandem of Jones and AJ Brown, coupled with Henry’s ability on the ground, means Tannehill has enough weapons to eclipse his previous efforts.
With an offence this good, the 13/1 on offer for the Titans to win the AFC Championship is tempting, but only if they can fix the defensive issues they had. Tennessee couldn’t get pressure on the opposing quarterback in 2020 and teams threw all over them as a result. They spent their first two draft picks on the defence, while also adding Bud Dupree, Janoris Jenkins and Denico Autry through free agency.
Colts Chances Wentz Out the Window
The Titans looked strong favourites for the AFC South even before the Indianapolis Colts suffered more injury misfortune on the quarterback front. After controversially trading for Wentz after he endured a horrible 2020 season with the Philadelphia Eagles, the Colts have been dealt the sucker punch of losing the 28-year-old to a foot injury which could keep him out for 12 weeks.
That has left Indianoplis scrambling around for a replacement due to having no decent back-up on the roster, with head coach Frank Reich keen to be reunited with another former Eagle in Nick Foles to plug the gap.
Any quarterback would relish being on this Colts team, which possesses a talented offensive line and backfield. Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman enjoyed excellent rookie seasons and have exciting futures ahead of them, while they re-signed veteran wideout T.Y. Hilton to a new deal.
There are some question marks on defence, especially after Justin Houston’s departure, which leaves them short of pass-rushing talent, putting more pressure on the wrecking machine that is DeForest Buckner.
However, without a top-notch quarterback – and it is questionable whether Wentz is one even when healthy – the Colts could slide back this season with under nine regular-season wins priced at 4/5.
Jags Have Upset Potential
Before getting into Jacksonville, we should get the sorry Houston Texans out the way. First year head coach David Culley has inherited a disaster scene with quarterback Deshaun Watson starting the offseason demanding a trade before his off-field actions, which could land him in jail, came to light.
Now the Texans are stuck with Watson, who was the only reason they won four games last season but is likely to be prohibited from playing until his off-field matters are resolved. They lost the face of the franchise, J.J. Watt, to Arizona after he became fed up with the hierarchy and due to some bad trades in the past, they weren’t able to re-stock via the draft. It will take something of a miracle for them not to be picking first in next year’s draft.
The Jags had the honour of picking first this year and used that selection to take Trevor Lawrence. The former Clemson quarterback can do it all, possessing a cannon of an arm and the ability to change a game with his legs. Lawrence’s arrival immediately elevates Jacksonville and they have paired the rookie with new head coach Urban Meyer, who knows how to win based on his college record.
This is Meyer’s first NFL coaching job, so it’s worth approaching the Jags with some trepidation, but he could be the man to bring through some of the young talent the team have been adding through recent drafts. James Robinson, Josh Allen, DJ Chark and K’Lavon Chaisson should all improve under Meyer.
The Jags could snatch second place in the AFC South if it all goes to plan and they are 10/11 to record over 6.5 wins.
*All odds correct at time of writing.