It’s a Formula 1 race weekend, the third of 2021, and we are in an unusual situation where we don’t know which team has the fastest race car! Nevertheless our resident F1 expert has found a few Portuguese GP picks and betting predictions which are highlighted below.
We have a very good inclination as to which, either the Mercedes or Red Bull, is fastest in qualifying and that is the outfit based in Milton Keynes, Red Bull.
You know what week it is.
#PortugueseGP
#F1 pic.twitter.com/fqjvmdCLkq
— Formula 1 (@F1) April 26, 2021
So far, in race trim, the Mercedes seems to be kinder to its tyres (which is amazing as historically they have always been the worst) but at tracks where passing is tough Max Verstappen’s Red Bull should be odds on for victory.
And so the good news for Red Bull fans this weekend …the Portuguese Grand Prix is raced on a fast flowing circuit which does not ruin tyres and it features just one real overtaking spot. Last year the cars were string out like washing on a line with just four cars finishing on the lead lap – it is not difficult to predict more of the same in 2021.
Max Effort in Qualifying
We rarely endorse the hat-trick market of a driver completing the fastest qualifier, fastest lap and race winner treble. But with bet365 offering 5/2* about any driver achieving it this weekend, the point where the available betting odds outweighs probability has to be very close to being breached.
Lewis Hamilton achieved the distinction here last year and it is relatively common at sweeping circuits where cars finish strung-out and, for the most part, lapped.
Naturally the safer way to go is to simply back Max Verstappen to get pole position and if, or when, he does pile your winnings on him either winning the race or taking the fastest lap.
Max Verstappen is eyeing a second race win of 2021 this weekend in Portugal after taking victory last time out at Imola.https://t.co/NSpSR9DpuB
— The Checkered Flag (@TheCheckerFlag) April 28, 2021
Betting on a Clean Race
There was no call for the safety car here in Portugal last season and that was despite of the track’s surface having been recently relayed and providing little grip. It was also cold and there was some rain. Neither are good for staying on the road. Nevertheless 19 cars completed the race and the only retirement still completed over 50 laps.
Weather Conditions
So we are leaning towards a ‘no’ safety car scenario. Forecasts say there is zero chance of rain this weekend, warm conditions will help with grip, and while there may be gravel traps on the circuit there are also big run-off areas before cars reach them. That’s plenty of positives.
Additionally, if cars are well spread out around the circuit once again, the likelihood of them meeting at a pinch point causing an accident that would necessitate safety car deployment is dramatically reduced.
Match Up Double Bet
Ladbrokes are now taking multiple-bets on driver/teammate match-ups in their F1 betting markets.
As Kimi Raikkonen has consistently outclassed Antonio Giovinazzi (beating him 12 times from the 16 races he completed last year and in both races this season) and Mick Schumacher finished well ahead of the errant Nikita Mazepin last time in Imola, this looks a fantastic F1 double bet which will pay at odds better than 5/4.
Summary – Portuguese GP Picks
- Fastest Qualifier: Max Verstappen – 5/6 Boylesports
- No Safety Car – 7/4 bet365*
- Race Match-bet Double: Raikkonen to beat Giovinazzi / Schumacher to beat Mazepin 5/4+
* Portuguese GP odds quoted correct at the time of writing. All betting odds are subject to fluctuations.
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