Carlisle vs Swindon
Swindon are still being priced up wrongly in League Two which is based on last seasons squad and manager. Ben Garner left to manage Charlton and he has taken a number of key players, whilst other players have also left plus there is more off field issues with the club facing a winding up petition in court.
So far this season they have failed to find the net with a record of W0-D1-L1 but it’s the underlying performance which is more of a concern. So far, they have averaged just 0.34 xG only Hartlepool have failed to generate more expected goals. The Robins have a shot on target ratio of just 18.2% having just managed just two shots on target from both games so far this term, whilst only three sides have had fewer shots in the box.
The team, manager and performances just aren’t as good as they were last season, yet the bookies are still pricing them up as side that finished 6th last season.
Carlisle finished 20th last season and at home had a record of W8-D7-L8 and against bottom half they went W4-D7-L1. Although it’s a little early to suggest Swindon will be a bottom half team this season, they have started that way and I think there is every chance they will finish 12th or below.
They are undefeated this season with four points and have looked good. I have them 5th on xPTS after the two games and their underlying performance has been strong. 2nd on non-penalty xG, 3rd for shots on target and defensively they have conceded just four shots on target across the two games.
Last season Paul Simpson came back into the club and steered them away from relegation and got the club into decent form with only 6 sides collecting more points than Carlisle over the 15 games that Simpson took charge. At home under Simpson, they have a record of W6-D0-L2 with defeats against Exeter and Newport. That good form seems to have carried forward. We can take Carlisle with a quarter of goal start at just shy of 4/5 with Unibet.
Port Vale vs Bolton
Bolton have started very well. They outplayed Ipswich at Portman Road for the opening 30 minutes and were about worthy of their hard-fought point and then they have given Wycombe, another promotion favorite, a 3-0 drubbing.
I watched them at Portman Road and was hugely impressed with how they controlled the game, moved the ball and the pace they had when they attacked. It’s a stable, consistent team and they should be in and around the promotion places come the end of the season. Despite their two tough opening games I have them 12th on xPTS and 5th on xG.
The Trotters hit real form from mid-January and ended the season with W8-D4-L3 scoring 27 goals and conceding just 16. Four teams only bettered this points haul, all of whom finished in the play offs with Sunderland getting promoted. This is one of the form sides in the division.
Port Vale came up through the play offs last season and have started the season with a 4-0 defeat to fellow League One newcomers Exeter and beat one of the relegation favorites in Fleetwood. The Exeter result is a concern as they managed just 0.56 xG in this game and its safe to say that Bolton are going to be a lot better than Exeter.
Despite playing two of the sides that will probably be in the bottom half of the division they sit 17th on xPTS, only two sides have had fewer shots on target and at the other end they are 24th for xGA whilst averaging four shots on target against per game.
I am really surprised by the odds for this game. In my private telegram group, we backed Bolton at 0.0AH at just over 4/5 but these odds have well gone. Instead, I am going to back them at -0.25AH, meaning our stake will be split between in effect draw no bet, so if the game ends in draw we get our stake back and then half of our stake on Bolton to win. We can back this at even money with BetVictor. I will be shocked if these odds are still available come kick off.
Huddersfield vs Stoke
Huddersfield are in real trouble. They have been awful this season so far. Easily beaten by Burnley in the opening game of the season and despite just a 1-0 score line lost the match 1.24 vs 0.15 xG, managing just two shots all game whilst allowing a new look Burnley 16 shots and eight shots on target. They then went to troubled Birmingham and lost 2-1, but again only generated an xG of 0.54 with just two shots on target and conceding 16 shots and six shots on target.
They have lost their manager and key players and despite almost getting to the Premier League last season by losing in the Playoff final, they results were built on hard work, set patterns of play, set pieces and key players, who have now left the club. This is another game that is being priced up from last season rather than what has happened so far this season.
Huddersfield can follow the Barnsley route of play offs one season, lose the manager and players and then get relegated the following season. In midweek in the EFL Cup they were awful again losing 4-1 to Preston, conceding 10 shots, six shots on target whilst Preston could have scored more as they hit the woodwork twice. Their underlying performance is awful. 24th for xGA, 24th for shots on target conceded with 12 across the two league games.
The defeat to Preston was a real worry. It was a changed side from their previous game against Birmingham and therefore an opportunity for players to force their way into the starting line-up. However, it was a game of half-hearted challenges, “pitiful non effort” as the local press called it. They also side the display was awful, woeful and dreadful! Although to be honest the local press hammered them after the Birmingham defeat suggesting that manager Danny Schofield is playing the wrong line up for the formation he wants to play, the new players haven’t had time to gel with their teammates and the manager doesn’t adapt to game situations. Fans are calling this a must win game – yet it’s only the 3rd game of the season!
Stoke are no great shakes themselves and had a disappointing season last term. They lost their opening game to Millwall, who are a decent side and then beat Blackpool 2-0 last weekend. They did suffer a midweek defeat in the EFL to Morecambe but I’d like to think that Stoke have bigger aspirations of a EFL Cup run. The Potters have a good team with Dwight Gayle now leading the line, Smallbone on loan from Southampton and Aden Flint at the back, whilst they started with Jagielka, Kilkenny, Clucas and Tyrese Campbell on the bench at Blackpool.
I have them 9th on xPTS over the two games, 5th on shots on target and 11th with xG. Defensively, 6th for shots on target conceded and 8th for non-penalty xGA.
City manager Michael O’Neill has challenged the players to use the win over Blackpool as a springboard towards a play-off push and they should use this as they head to Huddersfield, who are a side devoid of confidence. If Stoke can control the early part of the game the crowd will get restless, and this should play into the hands of the away side.
We can back Stoke on the 0.0AH which means that if the game ends as a draw we get our stake back in full. The only way we lose money is if the hosts win the game. Bet365 are the best placed bookies offering us even money.
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