This weekend’s football cheat sheet features top European teams battling for position, including Serie A’s Lazio on a four-game winning streak hosting struggling Torino.
In La Liga2, promotion race contenders Las Palmas and Levante face-off, while in the Czech Republic 1. Liga, Slavia Prague aims to maintain its unbeaten home record against Bohemians. Norwegian Eliteserien sees Bodo/Glimt take on Aalesund, and in the Scottish Premiership, Aberdeen and Rangers go head-to-head.
Lastly, Plzen faces Zlin in another Czech Republic 1. Liga clashes.
Lazio v Torino
Saturday, 5pm
A team that has won four games in a row, Lazio, welcomes an opponent that is winless in their previous four, Torino, this weekend. Whilst the league title is realistically done and dusted in Serie A, Lazio would still take great pride in finishing in second position; which is what they currently occupy in the table. This winning run has included triumphs over Juventus and Roma at home, so mid-table Torino should be a winnable contest for them on Saturday in their quest for five on the spin.
A big part of Lazio’s success is their superb defensive record, which is the best in the division. Numerically, they’re only conceding an average of 0.67 goals per game, so they should relish this clash with one of the lower-scoring outfits in the Italian top-tier. Torino’s matches only average 2.20 goals per game, and there is a big reliance on top scorer Antonio Sanabria (9) to deliver the goods. If Lazio keep him quiet, they should enjoy a profitable night.
BetUK are offering 17/20 on a home win in this contest and there is an argument that it should be a little shorter. As mentioned, Lazio are in good nick at present, and no longer have European commitments to worry about. Furthermore, Torino’s away record against top-eight opposition in the league reads drew one and lost six.
Las Palmas v Levante
Saturday 5.30pm
Only six matchdays remain in LaLiga2 and two teams that are firmly involved in the promotion race go head-to-head on Saturday evening. Las Palmas, third, welcomes Levante, fifth, to Gran Canaria, and it could be said that both are feeling the heat at this crucial period of the season. This weekend’s home team have won just once in seven, whereas the visitors have recorded one victory in seven. Within those sequences of results for the two respective teams, Las Palmas earned three draws and Levante four, so tight match could play out when they take to the same field.
If you are looking for draws then Levante aren’t ever a bad bet. They have the joint-highest number of stalemates to their name in this league alongside Huesca. Ten of those came in away fixtures, proving they know how to avoid defeat on their travels and form a stronger collective shape. Also, Levante have drew four of their six meetings against teams positioned above them in the table, including drawing at home to Las Palmas earlier in the campaign. Las Palmas has also recorded a draw in three of their five season clashes against top-five opposition.
Backing the draw is never an easy thing to commit to in betting, but this does appear to be the value outcome on the match betting market. Both are only a couple of points outside the top-two automatic promotion places, but you suspect there will be plenty of respect on show, and battles between two big teams in this league are generally tight affairs, which brings the draw right into play.
Slavia Prague v Bohemians
Saturday, 6pm
Four of the top five meet in the Czech Republic 1. Liga this weekend, and one of those clashes has caught our eye. League champion in four of the past six seasons, Slavia Prague, welcomes league surprise package Bohemians to Fortuna Arena, and have something to prove having dropped points in three of their last four, although they’ve lost just once in 22 in all competitions. This may not necessarily be as easy as the odds suggest, especially knowing Bohemians have the second-best away record in the league.
The away side are on hand to achieve their best finish in the top flight since 2001/02, when they earned fourth spot. They’ve ended four of the previous six seasons in 10th or below, so this really has come somewhat out of the blue to enjoy the season they have done. They’ve scored in all bar one of their away fixtures, and they’ll certainly come looking to have a go and not play for a point. Bohemians went away to third in the table Plzen and won, whilst also drew at top team Sparta Prague. This team are unbeaten in seven, so could they spring a surprise?
The problem is that Slavia Prague are faultless at home. That isn’t almost faultless, it is 100% faultless, and a home league record of played 13, won 13 confirms that. 11 of those defeated the 2.5 goal line, and they’ve shipped only six goals in front of their own supporters. In October, they also went away to Bohemians and won 4-1, so for all that Bohemians won’t fear this, Slavia Prague won’t fear them, either.
Finding a decent bet-builder price was a little tricky, but I have landed on three legs consisting of Slavia Prague Win, Over 2 Match Goals and Over 0 First Half Slavia Prague Goal at 20/21 with Bet365.
Aalesund v Bodo/Glimt
Sunday 4pm
Bodo/Glimt have been one of the buzz teams across the European footballing scene for a few seasons now and they’ll be aiming to continue that with another Eliteserien title. Their quest for a third title in a row was ended by Molde last season, but they’ve began this campaign with back-to-back victories without conceding, so all appears well within the Glimt camp. It is the complete opposition for their Sunday opponents, Aalesund, who have started with back-to-back losses; both by a 1-0 score.
We already have a top versus bottom encounter three games into the season, and many are already predicting both teams could end the campaign in these positions in the standings. Glimt have dominated all of their matches so far and those facts can also be backed up on the Expected Goals (xG) count. Aalesund have yet to reach an xG of 1.00, whilst Glimt have been knocking on the door of 3.00. On that basis, a two-goal or more via for the away team on Sunday looks the most logical outcome.
Glimt have also won each of the last five head-to-head encounters, so everything is pointing towards them making it a sixth. They do however play a domestic cup semi-final on Wednesday, so it remains to be seen if they’ll rotate with that in mind. They play Lillestrom in that match, and they had a midweek match this week so you could argue Glimt don’t need to be so drastic in resting players etc, plus we’re early into the season anyway.
This looks like a good time to utilise the Asian Handicap market and -1.25 on Bodo here is priced 53/50 with Bet365. This has paid out in their opening two matches, and this will be Aalesund’s first real test of the season against a top team, and they’ve already lost two out of two.
Aberdeen v Rangers
Sunday, 4.30pm
There are certain games in the Scottish Premiership calendar which always catches the eye, certainly outside the usual Old Firm meetings. Aberdeen against Rangers is one meeting that very rarely disappoints in terms of goals, cards and much, much more. Whilst Celtic will confirm the league title in the coming weeks, this is still second against third, and both teams have their own reasons for wanting to be successful in this contest. Rangers will be keen to take a win into next weekend’s Scottish Cup Semi-Final against rivals Celtic, whereas every team is desperate to get one over the Old Firm duo. A big crown will be in attendance at Pittodrie to try and roar the Dons to success.
Aberdeen are on a six-match winning streak, so they certainly won’t fear Rangers coming to town, for all that their weekend opponents have a 29-point advantage on them. The sacking of Jim Goodwin in Aberdeen was inevitable at the time, and bringing in former player Barry Robson as his replacement has proved to be a masterstroke. As mentioned, they’ve won six in a row, and that has also included five clean sheets.
Things looked a little less routine for Rangers last weekend when St Mirren were the visitors to Ibrox. They were desperate to bounce back after defeat at Celtic Park, but they game was 2-2 up around the final ten minutes, before three goals in the closing stages secured a much more attractive 5-2 triumph. They’ve missed Conor Goldson in defence and it looks as though he is being readied to return for the Celtic match, so they won’t risk him here. This again leaves them vulnerable defensively, and they have only kept three clean sheets in their last 11 in all competitions.
One play which should give you a good run for your money is Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals, which is available at 10/11 with BoyleSports. This game very rarely fails to deliver the goods.
Plzen v Zlin
Sunday 6pm
Our final play of the weekend, and second trip to the Czech Republic, sees us take in Plzen versus Zlin, a match that covers both ends of the table. There is still three matches of the regulation campaign to go, and Zlin have already been confirmed to finish in the dreaded Relegation Group for when the league divides. Therefore, they are only really playing for pride in a sense in this one, and Plzen have an eight-point gap to top side Sparta Prague to try and overcome.
Plzen are the reigning champions and won’t want to give up their title without a fight. A drop in recent form has allowed that eight-point gap to open up, but they have had a tough run of fixtures of late, and they should relish this easier contest on paper. The loss to mid-table Ostrava will have angered them last time out, but they’re normally much more reliable playing at home. Nine wins from 13 reflects that, whilst they won’t all of their home games versus teams positioned below 7th, so Zlin in 15th should not pose too many problems.
Zlin have only won four league games this season, all at home. They are in fact the only team without an away victory, and yet ironically they have a 0-0 draw away at top team Sparta Prague to their name. Their record versus current top-six teams however reads one draw and nine defeats, so that looks to have been a bit of a freak result.
One bet-builder that has a good chance here is Plzen/Plzen HT/FT and Over 1 Match Goal at 4/5 with Bet365. The hosts are very short odds-on favourites so it should payoff to be a little creative here, especially with the home win looking almost certain. Plzen have the best first-half home record in the division, conceding only one goal in this period.
Tips
- Lazio (17/20 BetUK)
- Las Palmas v Levante – Draw (21/10 LiveScoreBet)
- Slavia Prague Win, Over 2 Match Goals & Over 0 First Half Slavia Prague Goal (20/21 Bet365)
- Bodo/Glimt -1.25 Asian Handicap (53/50 Bet365)
- Aberdeen v Rangers – BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals (10/11 BoyleSports)
- Plzen/Plzen HT/FT and Over 1 Match Goal (4/5 Bet365)
The post Football Cheat Sheet: Best Value Bets for This Saturday’s Football appeared first on MrFixitsTips.
