Portuguese football will be upside down in the 2020/21 season. For the first time in what feels like an eternity, there will most likely be another champion. Behind them, however, the battle is extremely exciting and the second CL starting spot is turning into a three-way fight. Surprisingly, the team from Braga currently has the best chance of winning the vice-championship. This weekend it will be a “David versus Goliath” duel between Famalicao and Braga.
Last season, Famalicao was still the big surprise as a promoted team and, as a blatant underdog, even flirted with qualification for Europe at times. This season, it’s all about survival in the Primeira Liga, and a point against a top team like Braga would definitely be a big surprise.
The best bookmakers are offering odds of over 5.00 for a home win in the Famalicao vs. Braga match on Monday evening, while the favorites are offered just 1.60-1.65. The match between the relegation candidates and the CL contenders will kick off at 21:15 on Monday 15th.
Prediction & Live Odds for Famalicao vs. Braga 15/03/2021
The current round in Portuguese club football will be concluded with a duel of differences. Last season, the difference in points between the two teams was only six points, while the home side currently have 30 points less (!) than the visitors. The starting position is correspondingly clear and on the 1X2 market between Famalicao and Braga, the prediction on the visitors is absolutely obvious.
The last few weeks in particular highlight the current difference in quality. While Famalicao collected only five points in eight games (with only two goals scored), Braga have collected 22 out of a possible 24 points in this period. Even though Famalicao made another coaching change, a positive result against the Carvalhal eleven is not to be expected.
Instead, betting on a handicap win for the visitors or 2/2 at half-time/finish is a very lucrative option for Famalicao against Braga. Braga have been in front at half-time in seven of their eleven away games so far, so the HT/FT 2/2 bet is recommended.
Famalicao – Statistics & Current Form
As a promoted team, head coach Joao Pedro Sousa’s side never finished lower than seventh in 2019/20. In the final standings, the glaring underdogs eventually finished in an excellent sixth place, narrowly missing out on a sensational qualification for the European competitions. As a team with many no-name players, most of them on loan, Famalicao impressed all along the line.
Only one home win in the 2020/21 season
Due to the return of many loan players and departures such as those of Pedro Goncalves (the midfielder is Sporting Lisbon’s top scorer with 15 goals), the 2020/21 team can no longer be compared to the team from the previous year. A look at the current squad shows that with the exception of Riccielli, Patrick William, Gustavo Assuncao and Anderson Silva, all (!) players have been newly signed or loaned out.
The best position this season was eighth after ten league games, but Famalicao have been in a relegation spot since matchday 16 and have to fear for their chances of staying in the league. In total, only four league games have been won in 2020/21, with the only home win coming on 7 November against Maritimo Funchal (2-1).
Change of coach does not bring the desired success
At the end of January, coach Joao Pedro Sousa had to leave his post at the underdogs after one and a half years, and was succeeded by Silas for a few weeks. But his engagement lasted just five weeks – after only six games (1-2-3 record), this experiment was declared over again.
In the home match against Braga, 45-year-old Ivo Vieira will now sit on the Famalicao bench for the first time. With only two points separating them from the bottom of the league, it is by no means out of the question that they will be able to stay in the league. However, even a point against the CL aspirants would be a surprise.
Famalicao’s predicted line-up:
Luiz Junior – Babic, Quieros, Riccieli – Vinagre, Pepe, Kraev, Dias – Lukovic – Guedes, Tavares
Braga – Statistics & current form
Sporting Lisbon’s championship is becoming more likely with every game. The green lions are currently dominating the league at will. But in 2020/21, not only could there be a new champion, but it could actually be the case that neither Benfica Lisbon nor FC Porto achieve a top-two finish. The two-time Portuguese Cup winners are currently in impressive form and have overtaken their two big-name rivals on points lost.
22 points out of a possible 24
Although the Portuguese side lost out to AS Roma in the first knockout round of the UEFA Europa League with two defeats (1:5 on aggregate), they are enjoying success after success in their domestic league. In the last eight games, the team of head coach Carlos Carvalhal collected no less than 22 of 24 possible points. Only in the top match against FC Porto did Braga have to settle for a 2-2 draw. However, this was a point gained after Braga scored the equaliser in minute 87 and 94.
The CL contenders are not lacking in confidence at all these days and given the completely different form curve, betting on the visitors is obvious in Famalicao vs. While Braga scored 19 times in the last eight games (top value), Famalicao, who are bottom of the table, scored just two (!) goals in this period.
Balance as a strength
There is no doubt that in a squad comparison Braga would definitely lose out to Porto or Benfica Lisbon. Nevertheless, Braga has proven to be an extremely unpleasant opponent for the top teams for many years. The big names are not to be found, but Braga convinces with a team that is very balanced.
Carlos Carvalhal does not have a player who is responsible for 15+ goals, rather the entire offensive is always good for a goal. This makes the offensive play extremely variable. Due to the many Brazilians in the team, Braga is technically perfectly trained and plays extremely pleasing football.
In terms of personnel, the absence of central defender David Carmo is currently painful. The 21-year-old has had an outstanding season so far before he broke his ankle in the top match against FC Porto and will be out for a long time. .
Projected line-up of Braga:
Matheus – Vitor Tormena, Bruno Rodrigues, Sequeira – Galeno, Al Musrati, Fransergio, Esgaio – Horta, Piazon – Ruiz