The third race of a triple-header and the final contest staged in Europe during 2022, that’s Sunday’s Italian Grand Prix in Monza. It’s a race that looks at the mercy of Max Verstappen as his car is the fastest of all 2022 cars in a straight line and this circuit is all about flat-out straight-line racing. Keep reading for our expert’s F1 betting advice with his best Italian Grand Prix bets & predictions further down this page.
Go High on Finishers
It features so few corners, cars will complete less than 40 gear changes per lap on Sunday. In turn, that means less wear on gearboxes and that helps when predicting a high number of race finishers. In 2022 the average number of unclassified cars has been less than two per race.
In a race forecast to be raced under sunny skies, we are immediately drawn to the over/under betting line on total race finishers and like the 8/11 available about ‘Over 17 Classified Drivers’. Most cars are currently racing with relatively new engine parts and those that are not – Carlos Sainz for example, will apply new parts ahead of Sunday’s race. This will, of course, incur a grid penalty.
Over 17..5 Classified Finishers – 8/11 (1.73) at Betfair Sportsbook
Red Bull No. 2 Can Finish No.2
But Sainz showed he was no match for the Red Bull cars at Spa – a similarly fast track – and his demotion brightens the chances of Sergio Perez finding his way onto the podium. The Mexican will be chasing his eighth podium of 2022 and the bulk of those have come at tracks where speed and cornering is king.
Admittedly his race-winning chances are slim – because Verstappen is faster and the number one driver – but using the Spa results as a guide, Perez should have way too much pace for Leclerc, Hamilton, and Russell.
If Verstappen qualifies on pole and Perez is in the top four, consider playing this pair of Red Bull drivers in the forecast market. For now, taking the 6/5 available on the Betfair Exchange about Perez coming away with a trophy looks a great bet.
Sergio Perez Podium Finish – 6/5 (2.20) at Betfair Exchange
Latifi Loves Last
Just how bad is Nicholas Latifi?
The Canadian son of a billionaire whose father pays Williams F1 fortunes to drive – and often smash-up – one of their cars is pretty brutal. In fact, this weekend he is 8/13 to be the last placed finisher …and we think it is good value!
The 27-year-old has come stone last in the last two races on the calendar and given mechanical issues are expected to be rare – mindful we don’t want him to break down – he can quickly assume his role of circulating his way around the back of the field and remain there for all 53 race laps!
Nicholas Latifi to Finish Last – 6/5 (2.20) at Betfair Exchange
Best Italian Grand Prix Bets
- Over 17.5 Race Finishers – 8/11 Betfair Sportsbook
- Sergio Perez to Finish on the Podium – 6/5 Betfair Exchange
- Nicholas Latifi to Finish Last – 8/13 bet365
* Italian GP betting odds correct at the time of writing. All odds are subject to changes.
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